The Portland Trail Blazers are 27-34 and fighting for a play-in spot in the loaded Western Conference. Despite their drastically improved play, it's going to be difficult for them to achieve that goal as they are five games back from the ten seed with just 21 games remaining.
Their goals have shifted as Portland entered the 2024-25 bad by design, with their sights set on the 2025 NBA Draft. The Blazers may shut down key players towards the end of the season -- as they have done in previous years -- once they are mathematically eliminated from the play-in tournament.
But by then, it won't make much of a difference on their lottery odds. Portland currently has the tenth-worst record in the association and will likely finish the season around that range, especially considering that most teams with worse records will go further into tank mode soon.
Blazers' potential odds of landing a top-four pick in the 2025 NBA Draft
Here's a look at the Blazers' current odds of landing a top-four pick if the season were to end today, along with the odds for other realistic outcomes (8-12), according to Tankathon:
Seed | Pick No. 1 (%) | Pick No. 2 (%) | Pick No. 3 (%) | Pick No. 4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
8 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 |
9 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 |
10 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
11 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
12 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
Portland currently has a three percent shot at the No. 1 overall pick, which, by all accounts, would mean landing Duke forward Cooper Flagg. They also have just a 13.9 percent chance of being in the top four.
There currently seems to be a consensus on the top three prospects, with Flagg in his own tier and then Rutgers teammates Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey in the next. Flagg is locked in as the top prospect, as he's having a historic freshman season. However, plenty can change between now and June 25 regarding who gets selected after him. Several other promising prospects are at the top, including Kasparas Jakucionis, V.J. Edgecombe, and Tre Johnson.
This is widely viewed as a strong draft class, giving the Blazers a chance to select the go-to star they desperately need. But while it's still possible they land in the top four, that's becoming increasingly unlikely. Even if Portland goes into tank mode, finishing with the eighth-worst record, for instance, doesn't help their odds significantly.
The one silver lining from their poor lottery odds is that the Blazers have an emerging young core contributing to several of these wins as of late. Besides wanting to land a top pick, other goals for the Blazers entering the season were to gain more clarity and have their young players take the next step in their development. They at least achieved that.
But in terms of the draft, Rip City's chance of landing that much-needed star will likely have to come from finding a hidden gem toward the end of the lottery.