The Portland Trail Blazers took a major step toward closing the star-power gap in the loaded Western Conference, largely thanks to forward Deni Avdija's All-Star breakout. While it's an encouraging step in the right direction and nice to know that the Blazers finally have their first All-Star since Damian Lillard, it's also still not enough.
Even in the best-case scenario where Lillard returns close to form, and the Ja Morant trade works out in their favor, Portland still wouldn't be in the same tier as the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs. That would likely place them in conversations with the Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, etc.
Part of the issue is the gap between Avdija and the superstars leading the other franchises, such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama. ESPN recently ranked Avdija No. 27 in its top 100 player rankings, which is arguably low but still points to Portland's disadvantage.
Avdija could reach that 10-15 range in a best-case scenario where he continues building off his first All-Star campaign and fully recovers from a lingering back injury that hurt his three-point shot toward the end of the season.
While that's not ideal for being 1a on a contender, it's at least realistic. This is no longer the LeBron James era of the NBA, where the team with the best player in the series wins. Depth, chemistry, and intangibles matter more than ever in this parity-driven league, which has now seen eight different champions over the past eight years.
Why can't the Blazers sneak their way in there?
Blazers won't contend until Deni Avdija becomes more like Jayson Tatum
Well, first Avdija needs to improve enough to carry a team to contention. A good blueprint to follow, in that sense, would be the Boston Celtics, who managed to win a title in 2024 despite not having a top-five player in the world.
Sorry, Jayson Tatum stans; he didn't even win the Finals MVP! That was Jaylen Brown, who ironically is the piece we're saying Portland needs to be pursuing. You know, the player they could've had for cheap via trade this summer. Though they expressed interest in Brown, the Blazers' front office passed because he didn't fit their analytically driven approach.
There's a world in which Avdija becomes that Tatum-level player who is a star bordering on superstar. Tatum currently ranks No. 9 on the ESPN rankings, which seems right in line with Avdija's ceiling.
That's assuming everything goes right in his development. He fully recovers from that back injury this offseason, continues to initiate the offense in Portland as a point forward, finds a way to limit his turnovers without compromising what makes him such a matchup nightmare, and contributes defensively.
That last point may be the most important thing separating Avdija from proven NBA champions like Brown and Tatum. Boston won because they not only had two star wings; they had two two-way star wings.
Avdija had a rough season defensively with the Blazers, but that was largely because he preserving his energy. With so many backcourt injuries, Portland needed Avdija to initiate most of the offense. But Avdija has already proven to be a strong, versatile defender during his time with the Washington Wizards when he was more of a role player.
Blazers head coach Micah Nori will have to find a balance where Avdija remains the primary offensive initiator but also has those guards like Morant, Lillard, etc. there to take some of that playmaking burden off him as secondary creators.
Portland still needs that Jaylen Brown co-star for Deni Avdija
In a perfect world, the Blazers would've traded for a top-five player like Giannis Antetokounmpo, sliding Avdija down to a more natural co-star role. But this offseason has unfortunately been a brutal reminder of how difficult it is for the Blazers to attract that high-level talent, whether because of the market, location, city perception, or the franchise itself.
That makes it increasingly likely Portland's path to contention runs through Avdija as the 1A option, because, well, they don't currently have another choice. That puts a lot of pressure on Avdija to continue improving off his All-Star season, given how closely tied his ceiling is to this team's. If he can reach that top 10-15 player range, Portland could have a realistic shot at contention.
The Celtics, with Tatum and Brown, are just one of several examples of teams that have found success without a LeBron James-like player dominating the way. But while Avdija tries to evolve into that Tatum-level star for Portland, they still must continue their search for a co-star as good as Brown.
Can Lillard or Morant provide that by tapping into their former All-Star selves? We should find out soon into the season one way or another.
It's certainly not something the Blazers should rely on, as the wide gap between Avdija and the rest of the players in those ESPN rankings made clear. Lillard was the Blazers' second-highest ranked player at 69, which is far too big a gap between him and Avdija.
They need Avdija in that 10-15 range and to find another Brown-type player in that 20-25 range. Easier said than done, hence why Portland enters the 2026-27 season with this half-baked roster. But after seeing all the superstars the Blazers missed out on this summer, this is starting to look like their most viable path to raising their ceiling.
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