ESPN's Zach Kram recently published an article highlighting one stat that could swing every NBA team's 2025-26 season. The stat was concerning for the Portland Trail Blazers: 16 percent of their possessions last season resulted in a turnover.
Kram notes that the Blazers could have one of the best defenses in the league thanks to their frontcourt of Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, and Donovan Clingan. However, their offense, particularly their playmaking woes, could prevent Portland from ending a four-year playoff drought.
"But will Portland score enough to push into the playoff picture? One underrated concern is Portland's penchant for turnovers: The Trail Blazers coughed up the ball on 16% of their possessions this past season, which ranked 29th; for context, the other teams in the bottom five in turnover rate were the Jazz, Nets, Hornets and Wizards, arguably the four worst teams," Kram wrote.
The Blazers have a Scoot Henderson problem
Turnovers were a glaring issue for a young Blazers team last season, and that problem may have worsened this summer with Anfernee Simons no longer in the picture.
"Making matters potentially worse is that the Blazers traded Anfernee Simons, who had the best assist-to-turnover rate on the team," Kram added. "With Lillard unlikely to return this season, the Blazers will have to rely on Scoot Henderson to generate a lot of their offense. Out of 30 point guards with at least 1,000 minutes and an above-average usage rate this past season, Henderson ranked 29th in turnover rate, according to Stathead, ahead of only Russell Westbrook."
Jrue Holiday's veteran presence and high basketball IQ should help fill some of Simons' void, but he isn't the same level of playmaker, especially at this stage in his career.
Portland's offseason moves were primarily designed to give its youth more opportunities, and rightfully so. But there will inevitably be growing pains, which could limit the Blazers from finishing higher than last season's 36-win total.
This is a roster problem that goes beyond just Scoot Henderson. Portland embraced Deni Avdija's aggresive style of play, but the downside was that it resulted in a career high 2.7 turnovers per game. Turnovers were also an issue for rookie Yang Hansen in Summer League, though some can be attributed to teammates who couldn't get to his risky passes. Ultimately, however, Henderson is the one who can help address this issue the most.
Every move general manager Joe Cronin made this summer was calculated, giving Henderson an increased role as the primary ballhandler. With Damian Lillard expected to miss all of 2025-26, Portland doesn't have a single traditional point guard on its roster besides Henderson. For better or worse, he's going to be their floor general.
This sink-or-swim scenario could result in a breakout campaign for Henderson, but it could also be the very thing that prevents Portland from getting back to the postseason.