Many expected the Portland Trail Blazers to trade Malcolm Brogdon in 2024, but Deni Avdija was never really considered as a trade target. At the time of the deal, many didn't think a rebuilding Blazers team should be trading away valuable draft capital. Portland was a team lacking star power, and giving up lottery picks would limit its chances of landing that missing piece, risking long-term purgatory.
Well, it turns out the critics were wrong, as Avdija has already emerged as the Blazers' face of the franchise in just his second year in Portland.
Blazers' controversial trade has already become a no-brainer
The narrative surrounding this trade has already flipped, as Zach Lowe and Howard Beck recently discussed on The Zach Lowe Show.
"He was starting to have a breakout with the Wizards. It was coming. You could already see the outline of this player coming before they traded him, " Beck said. "If you are a young rebuilding team, it depends on how deeply into the ditch you want to steer, but could you still have been a tanking team with Deni Avdija on board? Probably."
"I was so fascinated by that trade," Lowe added. "I asked 20 front office people: What do you think? I would say 2/3rds of them said, 'You know what? Avdija is good, but when you're the Blazers, you shouldn't be in the business of trading bites at the lottery apple, even for good players.'"
Portland took the boat over the mystery box
This rebuilding dilemma always brings me back to the scene in Family Guy where Peter and Lois argue about choosing a mystery box over a boat. Peter ultimately chooses the box because it could contain anything, even a boat!
In this case, Avdija is the boat -- an established asset that you already know is a solid NBA player, whose age and contract make him a perfect fit for a rebuilding timeline.
Meanwhile, these front-office execs are essentially picking the box, taking a gamble on the exciting unknown of a prospect who they hope will one day be good enough to be at Avdija's level.
That's an unnecessary risk to take on. Teams aren't guaranteed their prospect will pan out, and they're also not even guaranteed a top pick with the new lottery odds. As Lowe notes, if the Blazers didn't trade for Avdija and completely tanked the season, the worst record in the league still leads to a 48% chance of landing the fifth pick in the draft. We just saw the Dallas Mavericks win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes with a 1.8% chance.
The Wizards easily could've continued rebuilding (tanking) with Avdija on the roster. Portland didn't have the same luxury because its young core was already more established, especially after trading for Toumani Camara just a year prior, meaning a leap was inevitable.
They were wise to add Avdija to that group while they could. Portland shouldn't flip him now, but the fact that they could trade him for even more draft capital shows how lopsided this deal was in their favor.
It wasn't the conventional rebuilding approach, but contenders don't typically form by simply following the crowd. As this Avdija trade shows, just because there's a consensus doesn't mean it's right.