Damian Lillard is officially back with the Portland Trail Blazers, but for the time being, it's in more of an "assistant coach" role as he continues recovering from his torn Achilles. Due to the severity and time of the injury, Lillard's age, and Portland's rebuilding timeline, it's expected that Lillard will miss the entirety of the upcoming 2025-26 season.
Blazers fans are eager to see Lillard back out on the court in the jersey he belongs in, and rightfully so. But unfortunately, there's also a serious question about what version of Lillard Portland will be getting. Blazers insider Sean Highkin of The Rose Garden Report recently wrote about expectations for Lillard's return and how impactful he will be on the court. It's realistic but not exactly what Blazers fans hoped to hear.
History doesn't favor Damian Lillard returning to form
"Lillard is 35, the same age Kobe Bryant was when he tore his Achilles in 2013. Bryant was never close to the same player after he came back. There are two big differences between his situation and Lillard's, though. One is obviously that medical science and recovery methods have advanced in the last 12 years, and the other is that Bryant tried to come back in eight months while Lillard will likely go 18 months between the injury and the next time he plays in a game," Highkin wrote.
For context, Bryant averaged 27.3 points, 6.0 assists, and 5.6 rebounds per game in 2012-13, playing 78 games before tearing his Achilles that season. He went on to play 107 games following the brutal injury, but as Highkin noted, he was never the same.
The recovery timeline and improved science will help, but Blazers fans still need to temper their expectations surrounding Lillard's return to form.
"Still, there are far more examples of players that come back from a torn Achilles and aren't the same than there are players who are," Highkin continued.
"Kevin Durant is an outlier in that regard, and he suffered his injury when he was five years younger than Lillard is now. There are way more players, even great ones like John Wall, Klay Thompson and DeMarcus Cousins, who were pretty much finished as All-Star-level players after tearing their Achilles. Even looking at the other two superstars who will likely miss the entire upcoming season with Achilles injuries, Jayson Tatum is 27 and Tyrese Haliburton is 25. That's a long way off from Lillard's age."
Anything Portland can get from Lillard should be considered a bonus
While Bryant still managed to hover around 20 points per game post-injury, his efficiency significantly declined, finishing the last two seasons under 38 percent from the field. The biggest concern for Portland is the decline in Bryant's three-point shot, as he was under 30 percent during that stretch.
Lillard is less of a two-way guard than Bryant was, and his elite shot has always been the standout trait that separates him from the rest of the league. Without it in his arsenal, Lillard could have difficulty carving out a consistent role in Portland's crowded backcourt. That's also problematic, considering the Blazers are a bottom-five three-point shooting team. They need Lillard to fill some of the offensive void left by the Anfernee Simons trade.
Highkin isn't the only one to pump the brakes on Lillard's return. Kevin Durant, the injury outlier himself, has also discussed the difficulty Lillard and Jayson Tatum will have in getting their three-point shot back to form on the Mind the Game podcast.
"Your game and your body is going to for sure change," Durant said. "Most of the work is getting that calf back. You gotta get it bigger and stronger. I think that's going to be the adjustment for them. Those deep 3s that both of those guys shoot, they shoot a lot of tough, step-back threes. And I was shooting those before I got injured, and I fine-tuned my game to take some of that stuff out."
Highkin noted that he won't be the one who completely writes Lillard off. Durant gave Blazers (and Celtics) fans some sense of hope as well: "You can elevate or drown, in my opinion. I think both of those dudes have shown you time and time again that they're going to continue to elevate as individuals and as players."
We all know how confident Lillard is about his eventual recovery. But unfortunately, Highkin is right: history shows that the odds are stacked against him, especially considering his age.
Lillard's return is certainly a feel-good story, and his presence alone will significantly impact the team. However, regarding on-court production, it may be safer to view Lillard as a bonus rather than a reliable solution to a mediocre offense.