BYU's Egor Demin is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft. Some view him worthy of a top-ten pick, while others, such as Sam Vecenie of The Athletic, have him ranked as a late first-round value.
We lean toward the former and believe he's exactly the kind of home run swing the Portland Trail Blazers should take at pick No. 11.
Demin was BYU's first five-star recruit and, for the most part, lived up to the hype, averaging 10.6 points, 5.5 assists, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.2 steals on 41/27/70 shooting splits. Demin led BYU to the Sweet 16 and stood out as one of the best table setters in all of college basketball.
He enters the draft as the best passer in the class. The fact that he's the tallest lead guard ever, measured at 6-foot-8 without shoes, means he'll have an easy time seeing over defenses to make those reads.
Question marks surround Egor Demin's game
It's obvious that aspect of his game will translate to the NBA. But what makes Demin such a polarizing prospect and lower on Vecenie's and other draft analysts' boards is that he's not a reliable shooter and doesn't effectively create separation --- two traits crucial for success as a guard in the NBA.
Vecenie notes that he values "finding players who can dribble, pass, shoot and defend, all while doing so with positional size." Because of this, he downgrades players that may be "interesting on-ball upside swings but have a lower chance to hit any sort of threshold with the ball in their hands," going on to list Jeremiah Fears, Demin, Noa Essengue, and Rasheer Fleming as players who fit that criterion.
Demin still needs to work on his dribbling, shooting, and defense to become an impactful two-way guard at the next level. Part of that also involves adding more size, as he's currently listed at 199 pounds.
Demin lacks the burst to consistently get around perimeter defenders at the next level. He will need to become a matchup nightmare by taking his game in the other direction, becoming much more physical, and emulating players like Portland's Deni Avdija.
Why the Blazers should bet on Egor Demin
But there are two unteachable things that Demin already does incredibly well. He has elite positional size and processes the game at a quick speed.
Oftentimes, guards have difficulty adjusting to the NBA because they don't read the game at a high enough level to anticipate plays before they happen. Demin may struggle with the speed as a ballhandler, but he certainly won't have that issue from a basketball IQ standpoint.
Admittedly, there's a reason we are calling him a homerun swing. It's possible Portland could strike out with this pick. But we are believers in his trajectory to eventually develop into an average three-point shooting threat, which will do wonders for unlocking the rest of Demin's game.
He's also the type of player who could benefit more from the NBA, as he thrives in open space and didn't have many offensive threats to work with at BYU. Vecenie's lower on him than most but acknowledges the undeniable upside here:
"If you think Demin can turn the corner in the NBA with the increased driving lanes that he'll see, can improve his shot and defend using his length more consistently, then you should have him as a top-10 player in the class. The tools here are outrageously interesting given his spectacular feel for the game as a passer and processor."