If the season were to end today, the Portland Trail Blazers would have just a 1.5 percent chance of landing the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, and a 7.1 percent chance of jumping into the top four. So, you're saying there's a chance!
Luck was on their side in a recent Bleacher Report mock draft, where Zach Buckley has Portland selecting North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson with the No. 4 overall selection.
There's a top-three consensus of prospects between AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer. Wilson wouldn't be a bad consolation prize by any means, and could be a win-win scenario as his landing spot in Portland could be ideal for his development.
"Portland's lottery winnings here could mean good fortunes for Wilson, too. He needs a little time to impact the game with more than explosion and energy—shooting and handling are big swing skills—and the Blazers are deep enough up front to not ask too much from him too quickly," Buckley writes.
Caleb Wilson is the perfect fit for Joe Cronin's vision
The Blazers would face a difficult decision if this simulated lottery were to become reality. Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. has seen his draft stock rise after a strong March and should be in consideration here, as it's rarely a bad idea to bet on a John Calipari guard in the NBA. Acuff would give Portland more clarity in what has suddenly become an uncertain backcourt, with question marks surrounding how Scoot Henderson and, to a lesser extent, Shaedon Sharpe fit into their long-term plans.
It also wouldn't be surprising if Portland were to explore shopping the pick. They have a win-now window around the timelines of aging stars Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday. Incoming owner Tom Dundon has a reputation for bold moves and has already made it clear he'd look to be aggressive with this Blazers roster.
But assuming they stand pat in this scenario, Wilson appears to be the best blend of fit, talent, and upside. He's the exact player archetype that general manager Joe Cronin covets. With a 6-foot-10 frame and arguably the best athleticism in the entire class, it's easy to see how Wilson would fit into Cronin's vision for this roster. His versatility would help Portland become the elite defense they envision, getting stops that create transition opportunities, where Wilson is at his best.
With a frontcourt duo of Wilson and Donovan Clingan, Portland would be set for the next decade. Although Wilson's 25.9 three-point percentage at North Carolina is a concern, Clingan's rapid improvement in that area would help. Not to mention, Wilson would have plenty of time to develop that aspect of his game.
What you can't develop is his elite physical tools, giving Wilson a tantalizing star ceiling that Portland would be wise to bet on this summer.