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Blazers face a glaring Deni Avdija problem at the worst possible time

Mar 10, 2026; Portland, Oregon, USA;  Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija (8) reacts to gameplay against the Charlotte Hornets during the second half at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-Imagn Images
Mar 10, 2026; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija (8) reacts to gameplay against the Charlotte Hornets during the second half at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-Imagn Images | Jaime Valdez-Imagn Images

Deni Avdija's three-point shot has fallen off a cliff since his back injury. He's played in 20 games since the All-Star break, shooting just 20.2 percent from beyond the arc during that stretch. It's affected how Avdija approaches the game, considering his three-point attempts have decreased from 6.4 to 4.7 per game since the break.

The silver lining is that Avdija has a versatile enough game to impact winning in other aspects. He's one of the best in the league at getting downhill, utilizing his rare combination of strength and ballhandling to create matchup nightmares for opponents. For instance, Avdija had a career-high 16 first-quarter points in their huge game against the Los Angeles Clippers, all of which came inside the arc.

To his credit, Avdija has still averaged 21.8 points per game since the break while maintaining similar rebound and assist numbers. But the Blazers have essentially locked themselves into the eighth seed, assuming they defeat the Sacramento Kings on Sunday.

Blazers desperately need Deni Avdija at full strength

Their playoff chances have skyrocketed in the past few weeks, but the downside is a potential matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs. If Portland does manage to make the postseason this year, the reality is that they will be massive underdogs in large part due to their relative lack of star power. They've made tremendous strides in that department this season, with Avdija being the first All-Star to represent Portland throughout their entire rebuild and the first since Lillard's initial stint in Portland.

But the issue is that Avdija isn't playing at 100 percent. In March, he mentioned he's still trying to "get back in rhythm." And those who have watched the Blazers can tell that almost all of Avdija's misses from distance have been short as of late. They all appear to be on line, but you can tell that he's lacking the lift in his shot that he had prior to injury. There's even a bit of a hitch compared to before.

The good news is, this is likely a short-term problem that time will resolve, as Avdija will have an entire offseason to return to form. His three-point shot was the most concerning aspect of his game, as many wondered whether the Blazers bought Avdija at his peak, given his major three-point leap in his final season with the Wizards. That couldn't be further from the case, as his All-Star season has proven. We now have a three-year sample size to suggest that Avdija's improved shot is here to stay.

But in the short term, this absolutely remains a problem as he continues to return to form. With Avdija not at 100 percent, it's only going to make Portland's chances of a playoff run that much slimmer.

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