The Portland Trail Blazers' first-round investment in Iowa forward Kris Murray has yet to pay off. Unfortunately, there's no sign it ever will either, as Murray is trending in the wrong direction. He took a significant step back in his second season with the Blazers, averaging 4.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.0 assists on 42/23/46 shooting splits.
The most concerning aspect of his decline was Murray's shooting. He needed to improve his efficiency to earn a consistent spot in Chauncey Billups' rotation, but instead, his three-point percentage dipped from 26.8 to 22.5%. That resulted in his minutes decreasing from 21.7 to 15.1 per game.
Shooting woes threaten Kris Murray's future with Blazers
Entering the league after three successful years at Iowa, Murray was viewed as an NBA-ready prospect -- someone with a high floor due to his defensive versatility at 6-foot-6, but a relatively capped ceiling, primarily due to his age. However, because of his offensive limitations as a non-shooting wing, Murray's floor was much lower than many anticipated.
The average small forward in the NBA shot 35.5% from deep last season, over ten percentage points higher than Murray. That's a non-negotiable in the modern NBA, as it's imperative for a wing to be a threat from beyond the arc.
The analytics alone show the value of the three-ball, but you can also get a sense of its importance by looking at the top three-point shooting teams in the league last season. Seven of the eight teams to reach the Conference Semifinals ranked in the top ten in three-point percentage in the regular season, with the only exception being the Stephen Curry-led Golden State Warriors. If you were a top ten three-point shooting team, you had a 70% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. That seems significant enough for a Portland team looking to end a four-year playoff drought to focus on, especially considering they have finished as a bottom-five three-point shooting team the past two seasons and shipped Anfernee Simons away this summer.
Murray could still improve this fatal flaw, but there's also a sense of urgency surrounding his development. The Blazers quietly have one of the deepest benches in the association and need immediate impact players to help achieve their win-now goals.
Murray's down season has put his long-term spot in jeopardy. What once seemed to be a safe first-round pick is fighting just to stick around in Portland.