One of the main objectives of the 2024-25 season for the Portland Trail Blazers is positioning themselves to land, at worst, a top-ten pick for the fourth consecutive season. They currently have the seventh-worst record in the league at 8-18.
If the season ended today, this would be their lottery odds for landing each draft spot, broken down by percentage:
Pick No. | Blazers' Pick Probability (%) |
|---|---|
1 | 7.5 |
2 | 7.8 |
3 | 8.1 |
4 | 8.5 |
5-6 | N/A |
7 | 19.7 |
8 | 34.1 |
9 | 12.9 |
10 | 1.3 |
11 | >0.0 |
Blazers need to trade veterans to improve draft odds
Luckily, there are still 56 games left for Portland to improve those odds by worsening their record. The six-game losing streak and winless December suggest they are trending in that direction. Trading away established players before February's trade deadline will also help.
If the Blazers decide to shake up their roster, they should have a market for their veterans . According to ESPN's Shams Charania, "Multiple teams have begun expressing interest in a group of Portland's veterans -- Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Robert Williams III.'"
Other potential trade candidates for Portland include Deandre Ayton, Matisse Thybulle, and Duop Reath. But if they do move a player, Grant appears the "most likely" to be traded , an opinion expressed by Sean Highkin of Rose Garden Report.
There are many reasons that Grant seems like the most logical player for the Blazers to trade, such as his age and contract. But another one is that, despite his down year so far, he contributes to too many wins as arguably the Blazers' best player.
Ace Bailey’s struggles at Rutgers throw a wrench in Portland’s draft plans
Lately, it's become even more crucial that the Blazers land a top pick. The previous notion was that, even if they don't land the headliner prospect in Duke's Cooper Flagg, they could still luck out and get an excellent consolation prize since the talented 2025 class goes beyond just Flagg.
However, one of the previously projected top-three picks, Ace Bailey, has struggled relative to his sky-high expectations at Rutgers.
On the surface, Bailey's number doesn't scream "struggling," as he's averaging 17.9 points and 7.1 rebounds in nine games. But it's more worrisome given the volume needed to reach that scoring average (15.2 field goal attempts) and his minimal playmaking contributions (0.6 assists).
The Blazers already have too many one-dimensional players whose primary impact comes as individual scorers—Deandre Ayton, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and, to a lesser extent, Shaedon Sharpe and Dalano Banton.
Bailey still has plenty of talent and potential. It wouldn't be surprising if he still excels in the NBA. Still, these red flags make him a riskier prospect and less of an ideal fit in Portland than initially expected.
If his struggles continue, the top of the draft board could be dominated by point guards after Flagg. Whether or not the Blazers still need a future point guard remains to be seen with Scoot Henderson's rocky play as of late. But Bailey's slow start at Rutgers is concerning for them as it limits their options at their most significant position of need.