The Portland Trail Blazers made a curious trade two seasons ago, trading draft picks for a veteran player when they were supposed to be rebuilding. Two years later they are massive winners of that trade, with Deni Avdija becoming a star and the first pick they traded not accomplishing anything.
The appeal of trading for Deni Avdija was obvious. He had a high pedigree as a former Top 10 pick, he was on a bargain of a contract, and he had legitimate defensive chops while showing flashes of more offensively. Thinking that there was untapped potential in Avdija made sense.
The trade was questionable at the time
It was the timing that didn't seem to make sense for Portland. They were waist-deep in a rebuild and didn't appear to have found the centerpiece star to build their future around. Scoot Henderson was coming off of a terrible season, Deandre Ayton was clearly not worth the max contract that he was on, and the likes of Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons were intriguing but not stars, and the newly-drafted Donovan Clingan was not drafted to be an offensive centerpiece.
Trading their second lottery pick for Avdija -- plus another first-round pick in the future -- looked like a win-now move. Shouldn't they be leaning into lose-now, win-later moves? Portland never fully embraced that approach, keeping veterans like Jerami Grant and Robert Williams on the team. Now they were making a win-now trade.
Yet with Avdija, he was young enough and inexpensive enough that he could be a part of the next good Portland team, persumably as a versatile and skilled support player. Then, however, the blow-up happened.
Deni Avdija has leveled up
Avdija was fine for half a season in Portland, and then down the stretch of another lost season last year, he started to have monster games. That continued into this season, with Avdija routinely dropping triple doubles, drawing shooting fouls like he was prime Clyde Drexler, and making his first All-Star appearance this season. He may make All-NBA as well even on a team mired in the Play-In Tournament.
With Avdija only recently turning 25 years old, there is still room to grow. He is also under contract for a mere $25 million combined the next two seasons; he would be a bargain at $25 million each year. He is on one of the best contracts in the entire NBA.
Bub Carrington hasn't shown anything yet
With as good as Avdija has been, if the pick they surrendered had turned into a future star, then the equation could have been swung in the other direction. That has not been the case, however, as the Washington Wizards used the lottery pick on lead guard Bub Carrington.
Carrington is playing on the truly-tanking Washington Wizards, and that means he has had plenty of room to spread his wings. Unfortunately, those wings have not yet produced flight.
The good for Carrington is that his shot is going down -- 39.3 percent from 3-point range -- but little else has gone right. He is shooting just 45.1 percent from 2-point range, unable to generate spearation and get to the rim with consistency.
He is averaging 4.6 assists per game, often serving as the full-time point guard in lineups, but he is also turning it over 2.3 times per game. He essentially never gets to the free-throw line, and when he does, he only makes 72.6 percent of his foul shots. And on defense, Carrington has caught the same disease as the rest of the Wizards and serves as an attendant at a theme park, just waving people through into the paint.
There is still time for Carrington to find his stride in the NBA. There is another pick still owed in the future as a part of the deal. Perhaps the deal becomes more balanced in the future.
For now, however, the winner is clear. The Portland Trail Blazers gave up two middling assets and got back an All-Star on a bargain contract. That's a deal to make 10 times out of 10.