The Portland Trail Blazers head into the All-Star break with a 23-32 record. They've already exceeded their 21-win total from last season and are on pace to finish the season 34-48. Portland sits 13th in the Western Conference and is 4.5 games back from the 10-seeded Golden State Warriors. That's significant as the Blazers are still chasing a play-in spot. It's still doubtful that it will happen, especially after the injury to Deandre Ayton (more on that later), but something to monitor nonetheless.
Portland's lottery odds
We prefer the Blazers to take the team in the opposite direction and fully embrace a rebuild by prioritizing their young core more. Despite being a bottom-three team in the West, Portland has the ninth-worst record in the league.
They are at risk of ending up in NBA purgatory as a team that won't make the playoffs yet also has minimal odds of landing a top pick. That's even more problematic in the 2025 draft class, which is headlined by Duke's Cooper Flagg but has a few other potentially franchise-altering prospects.
This would be the Blazers' draft lottery odds if the season ended today:
Pick No. | Blazers' odds (%) |
|---|---|
1 | 4.5 |
2 | 4.8 |
3 | 5.2 |
4 | 5.7 |
9 | 50.7 |
10 | 25.9 |
11 | 3.0 |
12 | 0.1 |
13 | >0.0 |
Trail Blazers injury updates
The Blazers announced that Ayton would be re-evaluated in four weeks after suffering a left calf strain in their loss to the Denver Nuggets on Feb. 10.
Scoot Henderson was injured in the same game, suffering a right ankle sprain. He will now miss the Rising Stars event at NBA-All-Star Weekend, with Nuggets guard Julian Strawther named as Henderson's replacement.
Matisse Thybulle has yet to play in the 2024-25 season. He was initially recovering from right knee surgery he had in October but suffered a Grade 2 right ankle sprain while ramping up his return. That ankle sprain occurred on Nov. 26, and at the time, Thybulle was given an estimated recovery timeline of three to six weeks. We are already roughly a month past the six-week timeframe, so it's surprising that he's yet to return to action.
Jerami Grant and Robert Williams III both missed the Blazers' most recent game due to right knee soreness. Still, the fact that both were initially listed as questionable and later downgraded to out suggests they should be good to go once the Blazers play again.
The All-Star break will allow Portland to get healthier, with their next game not coming until Feb. 20, when they take on the Los Angeles Lakers at the Moda Center.
What’s ahead for the Blazers
After they take on the new-look Lakers, the Blazers will have an opportunity to catch up in the play-in race. Their next four games are against the Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Brooklyn Nets, all of whom have worse records than Portland.
We'd be surprised if they are still in the play-in race by the end of the season. But if they are, some matchups to keep an eye on include Apr. 6 against the San Antonio Spurs and Apr. 11 against the Golden State Warriors, two teams they'll potentially have to leapfrog in the standings to give themselves a chance.
The play-in tournament would be a great opportunity for the Blazers to gain valuable experience, especially since they have the second-youngest roster in the league. But it shouldn't be the priority for the remainder of the season.
The worst-case scenario for the Blazers is staying the course and being too good to land a high lottery pick but not good enough to make the play-in. That outcome becomes increasingly likely if they continue prioritizing veterans like Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Ayton (when healthy) over their three recent top-ten picks in Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan.
The best outcome? Portland leans fully into its rebuild and better positions itself for long-term success.
Henderson was finally turning a corner before the All-Star break, and the hope is he can build on that momentum for the rest of the season. Clingan is coming off two of his best games as a starter in Ayton's absence. Surprisingly, the biggest question mark is Sharpe, who has struggled with his shot (30.9 percent from three) and regressed since Billups moved him to the bench, cutting his minutes.
On the defensive end, the Blazers have found an identity with Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija as their two-way wings. But they'll need continued development from Henderson, Sharpe, and Clingan to build off that foundation.
The pieces are there -- Portland just needs to commit to the rebuild instead of straddling the line, and they'll be in much better shape for the future.