Portland Trail Blazers point guard Scoot Henderson is entering a pivotal third season. After a disappointing rookie campaign, Henderson somewhat redeemed himself in his second year, becoming a more efficient player who finally seemed to understand how to impact winning at the next level. He'll look to build on that momentum this season and will have a golden opportunity to do so thanks to Portland's moves this summer.
Anfernee Simons and Dalano Banton are now out of Portland's backcourt picture. They were surprisingly replaced with aging stars Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard. Holiday is a much lower-maintenance player on the court than Simons, while Lillard may not even play in 2025-26.
Whether Henderson winds up starting for the Blazers remains to be seen. Regardless, it's clear that he will have an increased role and be well-positioned to have the breakout that fans have been eagerly waiting for. Scoot still needs to improve in multiple areas as a player, including his finishing, defense, and decision-making. Ultimately, however, whether Henderson experiences success in this anticipated third season will come down to shooting.
Key to Blazers' rebuild lies in Scoot Henderson's shooting
Zach Lowe recently highlighted Henderson's shooting as the determining factor for him reaching his high ceiling on The Zach Lowe Show.
"We all know it's about the shooting. There's only so far you can get as a lead ballhandler if players are going to play ten feet off of you and duck under every screen, wall off the paint, and not have to rotate from any of the shooters on the floor. The shooting trended in the right direction across the board last year... It's not nearly good enough yet."
The silver lining is that if Henderson doesn't become a consistent shooting threat, it's already become apparent that he's moved past the bust status that many prematurely labeled him after his rookie season was underwhelming, especially compared to expectations as the No. 3 overall pick.
"If it doesn't get to a point where teams have to at least think about going over screens, his ceiling is going to be artificially capped, at a decent level still... He's got the vision, he's got the physicality," Lowe said.
Henderson averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 assists, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.0 steals this past season on 42/35/77 shooting splits. His 35.4 percent three-point shooting hovered right around league average at the point guard position for last year, an encouraging increase from his 32.5 percent as a rookie.
If Henderson remains at this level as a shooter, he still possesses enough skills as a downhill playmaker to generate offense for Portland. But by drafting him with the No. 3 overall pick, and essentially picking his timeline over Lillard's in the summer of 2023, the Blazers attached their rebuilding ceiling to Henderson's.
The reality is that they aren't able to contend in the Western Conference with Deni Avdija as their best player. Of the players on their roster, Henderson remains the best bet to surpass him.
He's already shown flashes of that star level he's capable of reaching, including a 39-point performance against the Brooklyn Nets where he shot 8-of-10 from beyond the arc. The Blazers desperately need that version of Henderson as a three-level scorer to open up their entire offense -- not to that extreme, but on a more consistent basis.