As a basketball fan, watching the NBA Finals is always exciting, and this year’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat was no exception. However, as a Blazers fan, I can’t help but think about what could have been if Portland was in the mix.
The Blazers have had three finals appearances, with one championship in 1977. While they have yet to make the finals in the Damian Lillard era, their Western Conference Finals run in 2019 was a reminder of the team’s potential.
With the NBA world still reeling from the Nuggets’ first franchise title, it’s an excellent opportunity for the Blazers to evaluate both Denver and Miami. Whether it’s playing style or roster construction, there are likely similarities the Blazers can incorporate into their own approach.
By analyzing what makes these teams successful, the Blazers can make informed decisions about their future, including critical offseason choices surrounding Lillard and the upcoming draft.
Here are seven key takeaways for the Trail Blazers from this year’s NBA Finals, including insights into playing style, roster construction, and future decisions.
Blazers takeaway No. 1: The value of versatile playmaking centers
Denver’s Nikola Jokic and Miami’s Bam Adebayo are both excellent playmakers at the center position. Jokic is in a league of his own, averaging 9.8 assists per game, the third most in the NBA, regardless of position. Because of Jokic’s unique talent and skill set, he will be challenging to emulate.
A more realistic option is Adebayo, who averaged 3.2 assists per game, good for sixth in the NBA among centers.
However, it’s worth noting that Portland’s Jusuf Nurkic is also an excellent passer for a center, averaging 2.9 assists per game this season. It could be a reason for the Blazers to keep Nurkic this offseason rather than involve him in any trades. Especially given his perceived trade value, it could make sense for the Blazers to keep him since they likely won’t get a return worth what he brings to the table.
The trend of playmaking centers has been successful in the league, as seen with the Golden State Warriors’ utilization of Draymond Green in last year’s finals.
One area where Nurkic lacks is ball-handling and the ability to bring the ball up the court himself. Bringing in a center who can initiate the offense would benefit the Blazers and allow them to get into their sets quicker.
Ultimately, if a more versatile center is available, the Blazers should consider it. However, Nurkic’s playmaking skills in the half-court offense make him a valuable asset to the team.
Blazers takeaway No. 2: Maximizing possessions through ball security
Amongst all playoff teams this year, the Nuggets and Heat were first and second, respectively, in lowest turnover average per game.
Unsurprisingly, they are the top three in assist-to-turnover ratio amongst playoff teams. Denver is significantly above the rest of the teams at 2.24, and Miami is third at 2.04. This stat supports what the eye test shows – Denver moves the ball exceptionally well and efficiently, which has much to do with The Joker.
It’s interesting, because the Nuggets and Heat don’t necessarily have traditional “pass first” point guards. Jamal Murray averages 6.2 assists per game, and Kyle Lowry averages 5.1 assists per game; this goes hand-in-hand with the point mentioned earlier about both teams having such great playmaking centers.
Denver, Miami, and Golden State all have guards that shoot exceptionally well. As a result, they have highly efficient offensive systems built around their big man’s court vision and getting shooters open off screens; this is something perfect for the Blazers to emulate, given the skill sets of shooting with Lillard and Simons and passing with Nurkic.
They have attempted to do so already, but one hindrance is their number of turnovers. The Blazers ranked 27th in the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.67. While they have great shooters and a passing big man in Nurkic, the formula will only work if they maximize their possessions and take care of the ball.
Lillard was the only Blazers player in the top 50 for turnovers this season, coming in tied for 12th at 3.3 per game; this isn’t concerning given the amount he has the ball in his hands. However, as a team, they were 22nd in assists (24.2 per game) and tied for 19th in turnovers (14.5).
Portland’s team strength is its offense and shooting, but shooting can’t be a true strength unless the team maximizes its possessions.
One solution to this problem is to bring in players that are better decision-makers, such as the Wizards’ Monte Morris, who is constantly atop the league in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Another solution lies in the hands of head coach Chauncey Billups; he needs to improve his team’s offensive system that plays to the Blazers’ strengths and better maximizes their possessions.
Blazers takeaway No. 3: Importance of a defensive-minded wing
Both teams have lockdown wing defenders, which has played a significant role in their respective finals runs. Denver has Aaron Gordon and what, at the time, were underrated free-agent signings in Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Miami has its superstar in Jimmy Butler.
Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said this regarding Butler and Adebayo’s two-way skill sets: “If your best players aren’t defenders, it’s hard to create a good defense. We have Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. They care about defending and doing the tough things. It is pretty easy to figure out the rest of the stuff.”
That’s something Portland needs to address, since Lillard isn’t known for his defense. The Blazers should consider Spoelstra’s comment if they bring in a co-star to pair with Lillard. Celtics wing Jaylen Brown comes to mind as someone who could be a great fit as a two-way co-star at the wing position.
This also factors into Portland’s offseason decision of whether or not to retain restricted free agent Matisse Thybulle. As someone with two NBA All-Defensive Second Team selections, he could be a key role player for the Blazers if they want to go deep into the playoffs.
Just look at Denver’s and Miami’s respective paths to the finals: The Nuggets had to go through superstar forwards in Kevin Durant and LeBron James, while the Heat faced (a limited) Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown.
That’s not even mentioning the other superstar wings in the Western Conference alone, including Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Brandon Ingram. Luka Doncic is a guard, but at 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, he would likely be better defended by someone with more size, like Thybulle.
Because of this, Thybulle could be nice to keep around.
Blazers takeaway No. 4: Finding value late in drafts (and post-draft)
Nuggets rookie Christian Braun was Game 3’s X-factor, putting up 15 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal on an efficient 87.5 percent shooting from the field in only 19 minutes. He is starting to look like a draft-day gem, as he was selected 21st overall out of Kansas; this is just the latest example of both the Nuggets and Heat finding hidden gems, either through the draft or, for Miami in particular, through undrafted free agency.
Both teams have excellent scouting and developmental departments. The Nuggets drafted Jokic 41st overall in the 2014 draft, among other great earlier picks such as Jamal Murray (seventh overall in 2016) and Michael Porter Jr. (14th overall in 2018).
Meanwhile, Miami has found success in undrafted free agents, which is highly unusual in the NBA, at least to this extent. Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, and Haywood Highsmith are all undrafted players that played a role in this year’s playoffs.
While Miami’s players all deserve their respective credit, it’s also fair to wonder whether they’d have the same success in a different organization. Something has to be said about the Heat’s culture and player development, which Portland should also try to emulate.
The Blazers have picks Nos. 3, 23 (from Knicks), and 43 (from Hawks) in the upcoming NBA draft; this looks like a potentially deep draft, and it’s imperative for them to hit on these picks.
Portland must use these picks to address its positional needs and weaknesses.
Blazers takeaway No. 5: Finding complementary pieces to fit stars’ weaknesses
The Nuggets superstars, Jokic and Murray, are offensive-minded. Their primary strengths are shooting and playmaking (Jokic rebounding as well).
The Nuggets made transactions to complement their superstars’ weaknesses. In 2021, they traded Gary Harris, R.J. Hampton, and a 2025 first-round pick for Aaron Gordon. They signed free agents this past offseason who are two-way players in Brown and Caldwell-Pope.
These players were underrated signings that complemented the Nuggets superstars exceptionally well. They can guard out on the perimeter and stretch the floor for Jokic’s playmaking, making it hard to double-team the two-time MVP. Gordon, a 6-foot-8 forward with explosive athleticism and agility, is the perfect wing to shut down the opposing team’s best wings.
Meanwhile, the Heat took a contrasting approach based on their superstars’ skill sets. Both Butler and Adebayo are excellent two-way players. As a result, the Heat surrounded its superstars with players with complementary skill sets who were more offensive-minded shooters, like Tyler Herro, Vincent, Strus, Robinson, and Martin.
Because the Blazers’ primary superstar is currently Lillard, their offseason approach better resembles the Nuggets’ strategy. The Nuggets have more offensive-minded players at the point guard and center positions, much like the Blazers in Lillard and Nurkic. Because of this, Portland could benefit from prioritizing two-way wings this off-season.
Thybulle is one, but there are players who fit that mold in the draft, such as Marquette’s Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Iowa’s Kris Murray.
Another possibility to solidify the two-way wing need is if the Charlotte Hornets select Scoot Henderson at pick No. 2, leaving the Blazers with Brandon Miller from Alabama at pick No. 3.
The alternative routes include free agency and trade. While their potential trades could go in different directions, Portland could pursue Kelly Oubre Jr., Dillon Brooks, Jae Crowder, or Torrey Craig, all of whom are unrestricted free agents.
Blazers takeaway No. 6: Heat’s improbable run a reason to go all-in with Lillard
Miami barely made it to the playoffs after struggling in the play-in tournament, losing its first game to the Atlanta Hawks, 116-105.
If anything, the Heat’s improbable run is another reason for the Blazers to try to contend for a championship next season with Lillard. Said Philadelphia 76ers’ President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey, “If you’ve got even a five percent chance to win the title, and that group includes a very small number of teams every year, you’ve gotta be focused all on winning the title.”
The point is that you never know what will happen in the NBA playoffs as far as upsets, matchup problems, and injuries. Because of this, teams need to put themselves in the best position to succeed each year. They never know when their opportunity to make a deep playoff run will arise, and they need to assemble a competitive roster each year that is ready to take advantage of their opportunities.
While trading for a co-star to pair with Lillard likely wouldn’t make the Blazers an instant favorite to win the NBA Finals, neither the Nuggets nor the Heat were favorites. This year’s finals is a prime example of why it makes sense for a team like the Trail Blazers to trade their No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft for a co-star in an attempt to contend for a championship during Lillard’s prime.
Blazers takeaway No. 7: The importance of efficient offenses
The Heat and Nuggets were the two best 3-point shooting teams in the playoffs, connecting on 38.6 percent and 38.5 percent of their threes, respectively. The defending champion Golden State Warriors were second in the regular season at 38.5 percent.
The Nuggets, Heat, and Warriors have similarities in playmaking centers and efficient 3-point shooting. In addition, the Nuggets and Heat were top five among playoff teams in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage.
Effective field goal percentage is an excellent indicator of successful teams. For context, the top five playoff teams were the Nuggets, Celtics, Bucks, Suns, and Heat; these are arguably the five best teams in the NBA this season.
The Blazers’ strengths are offense and shooting. However, they only finished 14th among regular-season teams in effective field goal percentage at 54.9. Regarding offensive rating, Portland was tied for 19th among regular-season teams at 114.0.
While most of the focus is on the Blazers improving their defense with more size and versatility, they still need to improve their offense.
Portland has 3-point shooters in Lillard and Simons – however, as a team, they were average, ranking 13th in the NBA in made threes at 36.5. Whether through the draft, free agency, or trade, the team must continue improving its shooting; this is especially important this offseason, given that Simons is involved in trade rumors with the No. 3 pick.
Regardless, the Blazers need to double down on their shooting strength. Some smaller trade possibilities mentioned in another Rip City Project article include Detroit’s Bojan Bogdanović and Indiana’s Buddy Hield.
Regarding Portland’s draft situation, the No. 3 pick is seemingly set between Brandon Miller or Scoot Henderson. Some solid shooters could be available at pick No. 23, though, including Michigan’s Jett Howard, Iowa’s Murray, Duke’s Dariq Whitehead, or Pepperdine’s Maxwell Lewis.