There are a ton of variables in play for the Portland Trail Blazers this offseason. They must decide what to do with their first-round pick and the Knicks’ first round-pick. The NBA Draft Lottery is on Tuesday, May 16, which should provide more clarity to their options.
In addition to their draft picks, the Blazers have free agency decisions to make – most notably Jerami Grant (unrestricted), Cam Reddish (restricted), and Matisse Thybulle (restricted).
Before the Blazers make these decisions, they will have to take a firm stance, one way or another, about the direction they want to take this offseason. This high-level decision will impact every specific move they make.
There have been articles covering whether or not the Blazers could acquire a superstar with their assets and what teams would be ideal fits as trade partners.
But there’s a higher-level question: Should the Blazers go all-in this offseason?
It’s a controversial question, with Portland fans and analysts on both sides of the spectrum.
The Blazers have been toeing the line of two differing timelines for too long, which has resulted in mediocrity. As a result, the pressure is on the Trail Blazers’ front office to make a choice.
Should Portland go all-in around Damian Lillard to try and build a contender, or should the team decide to tear it down and build around their younger assets? This article highlights three key reasons behind both options.
Reason No. 1 for Trail Blazers to go all-in: Damian Lillard
The main reason to go all-in is superstar point guard Lillard. He’s coming off the best season of his career at age 32 and has a legitimate case to make an All-NBA team.
On the season, Lillard averaged 32.2 points (career high), 7.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 0.9 steals, and 4.2 threes (career high) on 46/37/91 shooting splits.
He finished third in the league in scoring and had the second-best real-plus-minus rating among point guards at 7.08. With Lillard playing the best basketball of his career, a win-now move makes sense.
Dame has made it known he would love for Portland to make a move to acquire a co-star. Apparently, All-Star-level players out there would be willing to come, too.
"“I know there are guys that want to do it. I will just say that. I know there are guys who really move the needle and want to do it. But knowing that and actually making something happen to make that a reality is a completely separate thing.” – Damian Lillard on the possibility of trading for a co-star"
Lillard has spent all 11 of his NBA seasons in a Portland Trail Blazers jersey. He’s received a reputation for being one of the most loyal superstars in the league. In an era when superstars often switch teams to land more in ideal situations, Lillard has stayed put through the good times and bad.
If he wants the Blazers to make an all-in move, go for it. He’s earned that opportunity to try and contend.
Reason No. 1 to tear it down: Would Blazers be legitimate contenders?
Would going all-in and sacrificing the future even push the needle enough for Portland to be considered genuine contenders? Lillard is coming off the best season of his career, but the supporting cast around him needs to be improved.
The lack of that is evident in the Blazers’ 33-49 record. Although, to be fair, their record is slightly skewed as they turned into the “Portland Tank Blazers” toward the end of the season.
Let’s say the Blazers can get a co-star like Zach LaVine, Pascal Siakam, Karl-Anthony Towns, Bam Adebayo, Mikal Bridges, etc., and retain Jerami Grant. A big three of Lillard, LaVine (or whichever star), and Grant are solid and should be enough to make the playoffs, but it’s still not entirely on the same level as the big threes of the elite teams in the league.
It’s unusual for a 33-49 team with the fifth-best draft odds to even be able to have a debate about trading a high lottery pick to contend now. It’s not as if Portland has some star recovering from injury; it’s mainly returning the same roster.
The Blazers also are limited in cap space, and even if they let Grant walk, wouldn’t have enough room to sign a big-name free agent.
Reason No. 2 to go all-in: Available assets to make a splash
One of the bright spots to come out of the Blazers’ disappointing season is their fifth-best lottery odds. They have two trade assets from this draft, with their pick and the Knicks’ first-round pick as part of the Josh Hart trade. In addition, it’s a draft loaded with potential star talent, which could also help raise the value of the picks.
Here is a full breakdown of the Blazers’ draft picks for the upcoming seasons.
Lillard has expressed his desire for Portland to trade its selection. He said the following regarding the Blazers potentially using their draft pick: “I’m just not interested in that. I want a chance to go for it. And if the route is to (draft youth), then that’s not my route.”
The only exception to that is if they land the No. 1 overall pick (they have a 10.5 percent chance) and select generational prospect Victor Wembanyama. The 7-foot-2 unicorn Wembanyama is the only player in the draft capable of giving the Blazers the best of both worlds; with him, they could contend and rebuild simultaneously.
Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe: Backcourt duo of the future
On top of the draft equity, the Blazers have two young, promising players with All-Star potential in Simons and Sharpe.
Simons is 23 years old and coming off the best season of his young career. He improved his scoring by 4 points a game from last season. Simons averaged 21.1 points, 4.1 assists, and 2.6 rebounds on 45/38/89 shooting splits. Blazers fans know that Simons is capable of single-handedly changing the outcome of games when he catches fire from three.
Meanwhile, the seventh overall pick from last year’s draft, Sharpe, showed great flashes of potential in his rookie year. When the Blazers were shutting down key players toward the end of the season, Sharpe was given his opportunity to shine and certainly made the most of it.
In the last 10 games, the rookie guard averaged 23.7 points, 4.2 assists, and 5.8 rebounds. On the year, Sharpe averaged 9.9 points, 1.2 assists, and 3.0 rebounds on 47/36/71 shooting splits.
With a trade centered around multiple draft picks, Simons and Sharpe, the Blazers can offer an enticing package. They have enough assets to get a co-star that would “move the needle,” as Lillard said.
Reason No. 2 to tear it down: Blazers’ roster timeline
Alternatively, you can look at the young assets in the opposite light. The Blazers’ best route at a championship might be to build around the previously mentioned assets of Simons, Sharpe, and draft picks.
After all, the only valuable veteran players Portland has are Lillard and Grant (if they re-sign him) and, to a certain extent, Jusuf Nurkic. So it could make more sense for the Blazers to be patient and build around the younger players.
Lillard to the Brooklyn Nets?
If the Blazers went this route, they could get an extremely hefty return for Lillard.
One possibility is trading Dame to Brooklyn.
The Blazers could get Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton, and draft picks in return in that scenario.
Let’s say they make that trade, then select Houston forward Jarace Walker fifth overall in the NBA draft to replace Grant.
The Blazers could roll out a starting lineup of:
PG: Anfernee Simons (23 years old)
SG: Shaedon Sharpe (19)
SF: Mikal Bridges (26)
PF: Jarace Walker (19)
C: Nic Claxton (24)
Not only would they be extremely young and full of potential, but this Blazers lineup would also be well-balanced.
Bridges, Walker, and Claxton are great defensively and would be the players this Portland team has been missing. They provide a bit of everything on defense: length, rim protection, switchability, and rebounding, and they could better cover for Simons on the defensive end.
With Simons, Sharpe, and Bridges, the Blazers would also have formidable scoring in players that will only continue to improve. Bridges took a leap this season with Brooklyn as a go-to scorer. Those could be two or three potential All-Stars.
Portland would also have more draft picks to add depth with the Knicks’ first-rounder this year and any they’d receive as part of the Lillard deal.
By being patient and building around the young core instead, the Blazers could give themselves a better shot at realistically contending for a title.
Reason No. 3 to go all-in: Daryl Morey’s “five percent theory”
Philadelphia 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey has a “five percent theory.”
"“If you’ve got even a 5 percent chance to win the title, and that group includes a very small number of teams every year, you’ve gotta be focused all on winning the title.” – Morey, GM of the Houston Rockets at the time"
2011 Dallas Mavericks defeat Miami Heat super team
Grantland’s Zach Lowe wrote an article in 2012 entitled, “The 5 Percent Theory.”
The year before, in 2011, the third-seeded Dallas Mavericks defeated the Miami Heat team with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh to win the NBA Championship.
Lowe quotes Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, who agrees with Morey’s five percent theory.
"“One sprained toe or two, and the competitive landscape changes. You don’t want to miss that opportunity. You should always put the best team you can on the floor within the parameters you have set for yourself.” – Mark Cuban, Dallas Mavericks owner"
The Toronto Raptors’ 2019 NBA Finals run
Another excellent example of a team that more recently won the finals is the 2019 Toronto Raptors. That offseason, they traded for what ended up being a short-term rental of superstar Kawhi Leonard.
However, the risk paid off, as the second-seeded Raptors were able to defeat a Golden State Warriors team coming off of back-to-back titles. The Warriors were heavy favorites and likely would’ve won had it not been for unfortunate injuries to Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson.
But there aren’t asterisks in the NBA, only titles. Cuban’s point remains – credit has to be given to the Raptors and Team President Masai Ujiri for being prepared and taking advantage of their opportunity.
These two examples are of underdog teams that went on runs and had the right timing to take down super teams.
However, there’s much more parity in today’s NBA. The league has shifted more toward superstar duos than trios, resulting in more uncertainty. Take a look at this year’s playoffs. The Milwaukee Bucks were eliminated in the first round, but the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers and eighth-seeded Miami Heat are still alive in the second round.
The combination of Morey’s five percent theory and the amount of parity currently in the league are excellent reasons why the Blazers should go for it with Lillard. You never know what will happen in the playoffs, and Portland needs to be prepared to give themselves the best opportunity to take advantage.
Reason No. 3 to tear it down: Risk setting the franchise behind
Several other teams have gone all-in and their aggressiveness returns to haunt them. Recently, the Minnesota Timberwolves traded five players and five picks for Rudy Gobert, only to finish 42-40 with a first-round playoff exit this season.
Nets trade for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce
Another example is when the Nets went all-in during the 2013 offseason and made a deal with the Boston Celtics. It has gone down in history as one of the most lopsided deals in NBA history.
The trade was:
Celtics receive: Keith Bogans, MarShon Brooks, Kris Humphries, Kris Joseph, Gerald Wallace, three first-round draft picks, two pick swaps
Nets receive: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, DJ White, Jason Terry, and a 2017 first-round pick
Hoops Habit’s Yossi Gozlan wrote an article diving into the most one-sided NBA deals of the past decade, with the Nets-Celtics swap mentioned. In the article, Gozlan writes:
"“At the time, no such comparable trade involving that many future unprotected picks had been consummated since the implementation of the Stepien rule. The Nets arguably experienced the worst-case scenario in this deal having given up a 1st overall, 3rd overall (swapped for 27th overall), 8th overall, and 17th overall selections while only winning one playoff series.” – Yossi Gozlan, Hoops Habit"
The Celtics essentially drafted Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown with picks from that Nets trade.
Nikola Vucevic to the Chicago Bulls
Another trade in Gozlan’s article is the Orlando Magic’s deal to trade Nikola Vucevic to the Chicago Bulls in 2021. That deal was:
Bulls receive: Nikola Vucevic and Al Farouq-Aminu
Magic receive: Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr., and two lightly protected first-round picks
A player the Magic selected using one of the Bulls’ first-round picks was Franz Wagner, taken eighth overall.
A common theme in these one-sided deals is that the team going all-in ends up with a quick playoff exit. Also, the team that acquires the young assets and picks uses those selections to propel the franchise as they become cornerstone pieces (Tatum, Brown, and Wagner in these examples).
If the Blazers send out their first-round pick with the fifth-best odds this year, they could easily risk losing out on a franchise-type player. In addition to the high pick, Sharpe is another rising star with All-Star potential that the Blazers could regret getting rid of.
If the Blazers do make a significant move for a co-star, they need to be confident that the team they’re putting together is more talented than these teams that ended up with early playoff exits. Otherwise, they’re going to be sacrificing their future for no reason.