Despite being 32 years old, Damian Lillard is coming off one of the best seasons of his career in which he averaged 32.2 points per game. However, even with Lillard’s All-NBA caliber season, the Blazers finished with a 33-49 record and failed to make the play-in tournament.
Lillard has already been extraordinarily loyal and patient with the organization, but the Blazers need to do a better job of putting him in a position to lead a contending team.
He has made it abundantly clear that he has no desire to go through a rebuilding process with the Trail Blazers; he had the following to say regarding his future in Portland and the direction of the franchise:
"“I don’t have much of an appetite for bringing in guys two and three years away from really going after it. This is not a secret. I want a chance to go for it. And if the route is to do that, then that’s not my route.”"
As a result, the pressure is on the Blazers’ front office to acquire a co-star to pair with Lillard. Otherwise, they risk potentially losing their star guard.
Portland could offer a trade package involving their coveted draft picks and emerging young stars. The question is, will that be enough?
Do the Blazers have enough to acquire another superstar to pair with Dame?
First, we will evaluate the Blazers’ trade assets. Then, we will look at past blockbuster trades. We can select prior trades as references in which comparable assets were involved in acquiring a star.
Here are some of the significant assets the Blazers have to potentially offer:
Anfernee Simons
Anfernee Simons is only 23 and has a favorable contract with three years remaining on his four-year, $100 million deal. Simons increased his production this season, finishing with averages of 21.1 points and 4.1 assists per game. He’s still developing and could be of great value in the last few years of his contract as he continues to improve.
Simons is one of the main assets the Blazers can include in any trade. For the Blazers, the fact that Lillard and Simons have overlapping skill sets further increases the likelihood that Portland would include him in any potential blockbuster package.
Shaedon Sharpe
Shaedon Sharpe was highly entertaining in games in which the Blazers were tanking and relying more on their younger players. Sharpe displayed flashes of All-Star potential and gave the Blazers fans a lot to be excited about.
In the last 10 games of the regular season, Sharpe averaged 23.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.2 assists on 46/36/78 shooting splits. He will be a heavily coveted asset that many teams will inquire about to see if he’s available.
The Blazers will have a huge decision to make regarding Sharpe. On one hand, he’s 19 years old, which doesn’t align well with the Blazers’ win-now timeline they want to implement. But, if the last 10 games were any indication, Sharpe could make a massive jump in year two.
However, if the Blazers want to get a true superstar, both Simons and Sharpe may have to be included in a potential deal.
Draft picks
An NBA team can trade future picks up to seven years in advance. The caveat is that teams can’t go two consecutive seasons without having a first-round pick.
The Blazers still owe the Bulls a lottery-protected first-round pick (protected through 2028) as part of the Larry Nance Jr. trade, which limits their flexibility. So if Portland makes a significant trade, they’ll likely first have to negotiate with the Bulls to remove future restrictions.
Assuming they get that done, they’ll have all seven years’ worth of trade assets to deal with (except for any given to Chicago as part of lifting the protections).
For example, the Blazers could strike a deal with the Bulls to give them the Knicks’ first-round pick they have in this year’s draft instead their own future pick. Then, Portland could offer a team their first-round picks in 2023, 2025, 2027, and 2029.
In addition, they could throw in pick swaps in 2024, 2026, and 2028.
That’s an extremely intriguing package, especially factoring in the Blazers’ draft pick this season. Portland has the fifth-best lottery odds in a draft loaded with potential stars.
Revisiting the assets involved in past blockbuster trades
For comparison, we will revisit blockbuster trades in past seasons and how much those teams gave up to get those deals done. ESPN’s Tim Bontemps had a relevant article released in 2022, ranking the biggest trades of the past two decades.
Here are a few trades mentioned in that article:
James Harden to Brooklyn Nets (2021)
Brooklyn receives: James Harden
Rockets receive: Rodions Kurucs, Dante Exum, 2022 first-round pick (from Bucks), 2022 first-round pick (from Nets), 2024 first-round pick (from Nets), 2026 first-round pick (from Nets), 2021 pick swap (from Nets), 2023 pick swap (from Nets), 2025 pick swap (from Nets), 2027 pick swap (from Nets)
Pacers receive: Caris LeVert, 2023 second-round pick, 2024 second-round pick
Cavaliers receive: Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince
Kevin Love to Cleveland Cavaliers (2014)
Cavaliers receive: Kevin Love
Timberwolves receive: Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, Thaddeus Young
76ers receive: Luc Mbah a Moute, Alexey Shved, 2016 first-round pick
Trades that happened after Bontemps’ article was released or were not mentioned:
Kevin Durant to Phoenix Suns (2023)
Suns receive: Kevin Durant, TJ Warren
Nets receive: Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Juan Pablo Vaulet, 2023 first-round pick (from Suns), 2025 first-round pick (from Suns), 2027 first-round pick (from Suns), 2028 first-round pick swap (from Suns), 2028 second-round pick (from Bucks), 2029 first-round pick (from Suns), 2029 second-round pick (from Bucks)
Bucks receive: Jae Crowder
Pacers receive: George Hill, Serge Ibaka, Jordan Nwora, three future second-round picks (from Bucks), cash considerations (from Nets)
Rudy Gobert to Minnesota Timberwolves (2022)
Timberwolves receive: Rudy Gobert
Jazz receive: Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt, 2023 first-round pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2026 first-round pick swap, 2027 first-round pick, 2029 first-round pick (top-five protected)
Dejounte Murray to Atlanta Hawks (2022)
Hawks receive: Dejounte Murray, Jock Landale
Spurs receive: Danilo Gallinari, 2023 first-round pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2026 pick swap, 2027 first-round pick
Jimmy Butler to Minnesota Timberwolves (2017)
Timberwolves receive: Jimmy Butler, 16th overall pick (Justin Patton)
Bulls receive: Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, seventh overall pick (Lauri Markkanen)
One of the main takeaways Bontemps highlights in his article is that “picks matter more now than ever before.” Teams willing to part ways with their stars aren’t ready to contend and would prefer future returns that align better with their roster’s timeline.
What tier of co-star can Portland land?
The Blazers would likely be able to get a deal done with the Bulls to lift the restrictions on the pick they owe. Assuming they do, they’ll have much more flexibility to trade future picks.
The blockbuster trades mentioned above involve a promising prospect, multiple first-round picks, or a combination of both. With Simons, Sharpe, numerous first-round picks and pick swaps available, the Blazers should be able to get a deal done.
The looming question is, what level of co-star will they be able to get with their tradeable assets?
The Rudy Gobert and Dejounte Murray trades may have set a new precedent for the amount of first-round picks required to obtain a star. After evaluating Portland’s tradeable assets, it’s likely that they’d be able to get someone in that tier.
However, more would be needed to get a superstar who falls a tier above, like Kevin Durant. Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson are much more established players in the league than Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. In addition, Durant was disgruntled and seeking a trade.
A superstar will unlikely request a trade and include Portland on their “wish list” of teams.
A Jimmy Butler-type star may be a reasonable middle ground between Gobert and Durant. Minnesota’s trade for Butler in 2017 also seems similar in terms of packages Portland can offer.
The Timberwolves gave up an emerging star in Zach LaVine, the fifth-overall pick from the previous year’s draft in Kris Dunn, and the No. 7 pick to land Butler. Meanwhile, the Blazers have their emerging star, Anfernee Simons, and the seventh overall pick from last year’s draft in Sharpe.
In addition, they’re guaranteed a top-nine pick in this year’s draft.
Which stars could Portland actually land?
So, who is similar to Butler in terms of talent on teams that would be willing to get rid of a star?
The one that comes to mind is Pascal Siakam. Butler was 28 when he was traded to Minnesota, and Siakam is 29. The Raptors lost in the play-in tournament, were involved in several trade rumors leading up to this past season’s trade deadline, and could be looking to retool or rebuild around their younger players.
Given Fred VanVleet’s uncertain future in Toronto as well, there’s a pathway to the Raptors being enticed by this package and the idea of building around Simons, Sharpe, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and the Blazers’ first-round pick this summer.
Other players on middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference teams like LaVine, Bradley Beal, and Bam Adebayo also come to mind. LaVine could be a good trade candidate because Chicago has struggled this season, and the Blazers will have to negotiate with the Bulls to lift their pick restrictions anyway.
Final thoughts on the Blazers trading for a co-star
A co-star like Siakam or LaVine is enough to help the Blazers make the playoffs. While it wouldn’t make Portland title favorites, it would undoubtedly give them a chance.
Philadelphia 76ers general manager Daryl Morey has a “5 percent theory” that says a small chance is all you need to be encouraged to compete for a title.
"“If you’ve got even a 5 percent chance to win the title, and that group includes a very small number of teams every year, you’ve gotta be focused all on winning the title.”"
Based on prior trades for star players, it’s apparent that the Blazers can likely land a co-star to pair with Lillard, given their assets. Even if it’s as little as a 5 percent chance at winning a championship, Lillard has earned the opportunity and commitment from the Blazers’ organization to go for it.
But this all depends on what level of superstar the Blazers can acquire and how many of their future assets they’d be willing to sacrifice.