It’s time to face facts: The playoff chase is just about over for the Portland Trail Blazers. Despite a potential All-NBA season for Damian Lillard and numerous deadline moves to grab an impact wing, the team has slumped their way to a disappointing finish below the play-in.
With no paths to improvement, the next major change may be a new head coach.
Since the all-star break, the Blazers are 3-9 with their only wins coming over Houston, Orlando, and Detroit. In the twelve games since Lillard’s star showing in the 3-point shootout, Portland is 24th in offensive rating and 30th in defensive rating, leading to the worst net rating in the league over this stretch of games.
While injuries to Dame and other players have certainly been a factor, there’s nothing that Chauncey Billups has done to inspire hope in his ability to turn around the Blazers, either this year or next. In two years under Billups, the Blazers are only 58-93 and have posted one of the statistically worst defenses in the league. It’s looking like one of the worst recent moves for a team that’s made other key blunders.
Even with better personnel, it’s hard to imagine Billups’ deficient schemes suddenly changing overnight to facilitate a defense good enough to support a title contender surrounding Lillard.
Instead, there are a number of coaches – many of whom have yet to get a shot to be a head coach – who could step in, bring in an infusion of new energy, and change the future fortunes of the team.
Head Coaching Candidate #1: Charles Lee, Milwaukee Bucks
As a coach who has seen his name pop up in various head coaching searches already, it seems like it’s a question of when, not if, Charles Lee will get a shot to be an NBA head coach.
He’s been a vital part of both the last contending team in Atlanta and the NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks, serving as an assistant coach alongside Mike Budenholzer for most of his career. He’s seen his star rise all the way up to the point that he was named as the Bucks’ associate head coach, highlighting his worth to the franchise.
Lee is less of a pure X’s and O’s coach; he instead fits more into the Steve Kerr-mold of coaches who can manage egos expertly. He’s been an integral part of the Bucks’ championship culture and connects with all players on the roster, whether they are superstars or young players fighting for their next contract.
Lee would bring a new identity to a Blazers team with veteran stars like Lillard and Jerami Grant while also instilling a positive culture for young players like Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. Lee’s reputation in the league would give him instant respect and could help him gather a great supporting staff to make him a rising star as a head coach in Portland.
Head Coaching Candidate #2: Kevin Young, Phoenix Suns
If Portland’s goal is a complete culture reset, there’s another strong candidate. Alongside Monty Williams, Kevin Young has been a key part of the radical shift in Phoenix to go from perennial doormat to perennial title contender.
Young started as an assistant coach under Brett Brown in Philadelphia but has risen all the way up to be the associate head coach for the Suns. He’s also already featured in some head coaching conversations, demonstrating his value to the greater NBA.
The strength of Young’s coaching acumen is his ability to create a winning culture in an NBA locker room. He can inspire role players to new heights, handle the superstar personalities like Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Kevin Durant, and has also stepped into the role of interim head coach for the Suns, which shows their supreme confidence in his ability to lead a team.
If they didn’t already have an entrenched head coach, it’s not unreasonable to think that Young might hold that position for Phoenix.
That kind of impact on a team is sorely missed in Portland right now. With Young leading the team from the locker room and the sideline, he could get along with Damian Lillard, could have quelled the chaotic aftermath of Gary Payton II’s injury, and could provide stability and order to a team that so desperately needs it.
Although it might take some time, Young could lead the Blazers back into perennial playoff contention and spark a turnaround eerily similar to what’s happened during his time with the Suns.
Head Coaching Candidate #3: Frank Vogel
There are few former head coaches that are on the market, willing to move to a new team, and already have a championship pedigree. As he isn’t on a staff this year, Frank Vogel represents the most gettable head coaching candidate for the Blazers who could bring in a winning culture and excels in their biggest area of need: defense.
Other than a forgettable tenure in Orlando, Vogel’s spearheaded two contending teams as an NBA head coach. He cut his teeth manning the sideline for the mid 2010s Indiana Pacers, one of the biggest threats to the Miami Heat dynasty.
His Paul George-led teams were stoic on defense and disciplined on offense, which took them all the way to a winner-take-all game against the best Heat team of the Lebron era.
In a poetic twist, Vogel’s greatest coaching success came with James instead of against him. After firing Luke Walton, Vogel inherited a Los Angeles Lakers team built around an aging LBJ and a brittle Anthony Davis. In his first season at the helm, Vogel helped guide the Lakers to the best record in the western conference, the third-best defensive rating in the NBA, and an NBA title while playing in the bubble.
Although he got an unfair shake to end his Lakers tenure, Vogel would immediately bring a new dimension to Portland. He’s already shown that he can win with star players, which makes him an appealing fit with Lillard, but it’s his defensive schematics and aptitude that make him such a tantalizing target.
Whether it’s eking out a shocking defensive turnaround or orchestrating roster changes to get a better defense, Blazers fans would be hard-pressed to find a potential replacement for Billups who could actually give the team the one thing they’ve lacked in their quest for a championship: a quality defensive identity.
Head Coaching Candidate #4: Malik Allen, Miami Heat
If defense is what the Blazers are prioritizing most in a hypothetical head coaching search, they’d likely look toward the bench experts across the NBA whose sole job is to lead that side of the ball. Of all of the up-and-coming assistant coaches who have helped teams play better defense, hiring Malik Allen would be a great under-the-radar move.
Allen played for the Heat and found his way onto their coaching staff a few years ago. In his short tenure in Miami, Allen has taken on more roles and has even gotten a chance to lead a team of his own when he stepped in as the head coach of the Heat’s summer league team this past year.
Allen’s one of the main cogs in the Heat’s eighth-ranked defense this year. While he does have a prodigious defensive center in Bam Adebayo, he’s also helped to keep the rotations crisp and the identity consistent for the Heat. Defense has been about the only thing that’s kept Miami in the playoff picture.
Another feather in Allen’s cap is his ability to connect with young players and help them reach their potential. Guys like Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jovic, and Gabe Vincent have all seen their careers improved in Miami, and at least some of the credit goes to Allen.
Allen would give the Blazers a two-fold boost. Not only would he give them a fresh defensive identity that could make them contenders overnight, but Allen would also be a great boon to young players like Sharpe, Simons, John Butler Jr., and others, as he has a proven track record of development.