3. Anfernee Simons
Second contracts can be hard to predict if they’re not for obvious superstars like Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, or Trae Young. Prospects will be paid based on their potential rather than production when they sign their second deal and can sometimes be overpaid by a team in desperate need of young talent.
Anfernee Simons could fall into that boat. Still only 22 years old, Ant is already one of the best shooters in the league, but could just be barely scratching the surface of his potential. He’s yet to take advantage of his unearthly athleticism. It’s very possible that he could funnel his physical gifts into basketball production a la developing into a plus-defender or a more versatile offensive threat.
We’ve seen “potential” impact contract values both ways, though. Sometimes, the ideal projection of a player can nab them an overpay. But there are times that a young player will sign long-term and then develop into an asset that is suddenly a steal on their current deal.
For example, Lauri Markkanen just penned a four-year/$67 million deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers after being signed-and-traded away by the Chicago Bulls, despite producing value worth significantly less. The very vision of a seven-footer who can stroke threes and attack off the dribble was worth the money for the Cavs.
On the other hand, there’s players like Julius Randle, who signed a three-year, $62 million contract with the New York Knicks back in 2019. Over $20 million per year certainly isn’t anything to scoff at, but he suddenly became a steal last year when he started producing like an All-Star.
In 2020-2021, Randle put up 24 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists per night. He and Nikola Jokic were the only two players who cleared those averages for the season, according to NBA.com. As a result, Randle earned a massive payday, signing an extension for four-years/$117 million.
Obviously, Ant won’t command that kind of money in the open market, but his potential should earn him a much heftier check than his pure production would. Luke Kennard was able to bag a four-year/$56 million extension, albeit that was an obvious overpay by the desperate Los Angeles Clippers. Anfernee Simons will probably land a similar deal, whether or not it’s with the Portland Trail Blazers.
Predicted contract: Four-years/$60 million