We have nearly reached the All-Star break and the halfway point of quite possibly the most irregular season in NBA history, yet the biggest question that I have for Terry Stotts and the Portland Trail Blazers, is how will he adjust his rotation.
Too much depth is certainly not a phrase that was said about last season’s team or even about the Western Conference Finals team from the year before. This season it is. In a year where injuries and health and safety protocols are in the headlines daily, having an abundance of competent players has proven to be critical.
Breaking down the Portland Trail Blazers rotation at the All-Star break
Here is where things could get complicated. CJ and Nurkic are both scheduled to return from their injuries this season (fingers crossed), meaning the blessing of competent players could turn into a lot of headaches for the coaching staff.
Here are the facts: there are 240 minutes available for every regulation game.
Damian Lillard will play 36 (conservatively).
CJ McCollum was playing 34 before the injury that would only go up if anything.
Robert Covington will play 30 give or take 2 or 3.
Jusuf Nurkic was playing 23 before the injury, but he played into the shape that will move up into the high 20’s like previous years. We will call it 28.
Now then, that leaves 112 minutes for everyone else.
Here are their average minutes per game as of today, according to ESPN.com.
Gary Trent Jr. – 31
Derrick Jones Jr. – 27
Enes Kanter – 26
Carmelo Anthony – 25
Rodney Hood – 19
Anfernee Simons – 17
Harry Giles – 12
Nassir Little – 11
All of these together = 168 Minutes
Some of these will work themselves out, but there are going to be some difficult decisions. I know much less about basketball than Terry Stotts, but here is how I would go about it.
Trent Jr – 28 (Pleaseeeeee keep him in the starting lineup! 84 Remaining)
Melo – 24 (Melo has been awesome lately! 60 Remaining)
Kanter – 18 (Nurk’s minutes + Kanter’s will probably be close to 48. 42 Remaining)
Jones Jr. – 18 (RoCo + DJJ should equal close to 48 in my opinion. 24 Remaining)
Little – 14 (I want to give him even more. 10 Remaining)
Simons – 10 (He will get the 5 or 6 minutes a half that Dame sits.)
This would leave Rodney Hood, a starter on the Western Conference Finals team from only two seasons ago, and Harry Giles III as benchwarmers. I really like both of these players, and this is just an example of how difficult of decisions Stotts is going to have to make (this exercise would get 10 times more difficult if Collins were available.)
Here is how I justified these decisions in my mind. (All Stats According to ESPN)
Trent Jr. – He is a legitimate threat every time he touches the ball and not to mention impossible for a defense to help off keeping more room in the lane for Dame and CJ.
Key Stat: 41.8 % from 3 on 7.6 Attempts
Melo – He started the year tough and had me questioning the decision to bring him back this season, but over the last month he has been on a tear, he has earned every minute he gets.
Key Stat: There is no stat that I know of for level of trust with the ball in a player’s hands and confidence in making a shot in a big game, but this future Hall of Famer still checks those boxes.
Kanter – He has filled in admirably once again with Nurkic out, and he has proven over and over in his career that he is a high-level reserve that brings energy, rebounding, and touch around the rim every time he steps on the floor.
Key Stat: 58% from 2 – 74% FT – 11.5 Reb in 26 min
Jones Jr. – No player is harder for me to judge the value of this team than DJJ. His energy is great, his offensive rebound putbacks and blocks are always highlight reel material. Here is where I run into trouble – he couldn’t stay on the floor for the Heat in the playoffs last year primarily because no one respected his jump shot – this hasn’t changed. To be fair, his jump shot continues to improve, but the space that he takes away from Dame and CJ in the lane will make him a liability every game that he can’t make jump shots.
Key Stat: 31.8% from 3 – 1.1 Blocks 1.9 Offensive Rebounds per game
This is both ends of the spectrum – the three-point percentage may not seem too bad on paper. That is why we have the eye test – watching the team all year tells me that almost all of those attempts are wide open, and he does not demand any respect from the defense out there.
His positives are just as notable, he is second on the team in offensive rebounds, tied for first in blocks, and his big-play potential is another unmeasurable stat. All of these together forces you to play him.
Little – Wow, the difference a year can make. A year ago, players couldn’t sag off far enough on Little, this year, he is hitting over 50% from three! It does not look like a fluke; his shots rarely miss left or right paired with good arch and a soft touch he has developed in one off-season many of the characteristics of a good shooter. His size and developing ability to take the ball to rim makes not playing him not an option.
Key Stat: 51.6% from 3 – 16.15 PER (4th on Team)
Simons – The talent is undeniable, the jump shot is smooth, he is stronger this year, but I truly believe that he is not a point guard. This is not a knock against Simons. This is a knock on the organization for continuing to try to force him to play out of position. Dame needs a true backup ball handler. Simons minutes will likely go up and down based on how is jump shot is each night and that is a really tough way to develop young players but that is a reality on this team.
Key Stat: 1.5 Ast/TO Ratio – 40.7 % From 3
Hood – This isn’t fun to write, coming back from a devastating injury is tough. It is even more difficult when you aren’t getting consistent minutes and can’t practice due to COVID protocols. I really believe that Rodney will be that player hitting the dagger three in triple overtime to win a key playoff game that he was two years ago, I just don’t think that is in the cards this year.
Key Stat: 36.9 FG% – 31.1% from 3 – 4.96 PER (Lowest on Team)
Giles III – I like Giles, I was nervous we would regret losing him in the draft day trade with the Kings and I was excited when we signed him. He continues to get better I just don’t think he is quite ready to really be a contributor in a big game, but he will be soon. His ability to finish around the basket and switch on defense will be key to getting more minutes in the future.
Key Stat: 41.9 FG%
Having depth is not an issue that the Blazers have ran into in recent seasons and while it is certainly a better problem to have than not having enough depth it is going to lead to a lot of difficult decisions being made and those decisions will only get more difficult in the playoffs when rotations get cut down further.