Portland Trail Blazers: Which type of lineup’s will Coach Terry Stotts use?

What should the Portland Trail Blazers’ starting lineup be? Who should close? What out-of-the-box lineups could we see? Who is best for offense and defense?

General Manager Neil Olshey had a busy offseason working on upgrading the Portland Trail Blazers roster, and upgrade he did! With the additions of Robert Covington, Derrick Jones Jr, Enes Kanter, and Harry Giles, as well as retaining Rodney Hood, the talent and versatility of the roster has improved significantly.

After barely making the playoffs in the 2019-20 season, and considering star Damian Lillard will be turning 31 during the upcoming year, the time is now to get the most out of this core. Despite a great offense (3rd), the Blazers finished 28th in defense last season. Covington and Jones Jr. should help immensely on that end.

The wing position has been the weakest portion of the roster for Portland for many years. Last year the team played Carmelo Anthony, Mario Hezonja, Wenyen Gabriel, and even Jusuf Nurkic at times at the three and four positions. From 2015-16 through 2018-19, it was the all defense, no offense duo of Harkless and Aminu. With Covington and Jones Jr. in the fold, the team finally has the type of two-way talent that they had when Wes Matthews and Nicholas Batum were in Rip City.

Covington is a career 35.6 percent three-point shooter on 6.6 attempts per game. He shot 50 percent from three during the Houston Rockets’ recent 12 game playoff run. He even showed some off the bounce game when his opposition took away his catch-and-shoot opportunities. He’s not just a corner three-point shooter either – – he has hit between 33 and 38 percent of his above the break looks during his seven-year career, per Cleaning the Glass.

The twenty-three-year-old Jones Jr. is not a consistent jump shooter yet, but his youth would indicate there is potential for improvement in that area. Even if his jump shot never materializes, he can still positively impact this team on the offensive end.

He is an elite offensive rebounder, finishing in the 93rd percentile or better in each of his four NBA seasons, per Cleaning the Glass. He’s also a fantastic athlete, as evidenced by his Slam Dunk Contest trophy. He’ll provide a lob threat on the pick-and-roll that the Blazers haven’t had previously. With Nurkic, Kanter, and Collins all being able to space the floor as centers, Jones Jr. can provide an alternative screen option to keep defenses off balance.

With improved depth comes tough decisions for the man in charge. Head Coach Terry Stotts has a lot of mouths to feed. Trying to keep everyone on the bench happy might be difficult, especially if Stotts prioritizes winning now over developing young talent. Guys like Harry Giles, Anfernee Simons, Nassir Little, and Zach Collins could see their roles reduced.

Even certain veteran players could end up disappointed in their minute’s quota. The team has already announced Carmelo will be coming off the bench, which appears to be the correct choice. Despite Anthony proving last year that he’s a worthy rotation player in the NBA, he isn’t as good as Covington, Jones Jr, or even Hood (depending on how he looks coming off the Achilles injury).

So what should the starting lineup be for this team? What are the best offensive and defensive five-man units? Who should close games? What out-of-the-box lineups could we see? Which guys should crack the nine or ten-man rotation? That’s a lot of intriguing questions to break down and analyze.

Most teams go with a consistent starting lineup for every game regardless of matchup. The Blazers should forego that old school mindset and put out two different starting groups depending on the opponent. This first lineup would play against the vast majority of NBA teams:

Damian Lillard

C.J. McCollum

Gary Trent Jr.

Robert Covington

Jusuf Nurkic

This group has multiple playmakers in Lillard and McCollum, good spot-up shooting in Trent Jr. and Covington, and a roll man and post-up threat in Nurkic. Defensively it lacks size, but most NBA teams don’t feature an elite wing that requires height at the small forward position.

Jones Jr. would serve as the backup power forward in this configuration, which allows the Blazers to have an elite wing defender on the floor for all 48 minutes. Kanter or Collins would be the backup center, Hood would substitute at the shooting guard and small forward positions, and Simons would play limited minutes as the backup point.

This second starting lineup would be featured against the teams with an elite wing (think LeBron, Kawhi, Giannis, Luka, etc.)

Damian Lillard

C.J. McCollum

Robert Covington

Derrick Jones Jr.

Jusuf Nurkic

This group, while sacrificing some shooting, has much more size and defensive versatility. Covington provides elite help defense, and Jones Jr. would be the one-on-one assignment for the opposition’s best player. If the Blazers were to make the playoffs and advance into later rounds, this should be the group that they go with.

At times during the last couple minutes of games, a coach has a chance to put out an all offensive or all defensive lineup, knowing a timeout is coming up, and only one possession is going to take place before the stoppage. So in the event the Blazers had the ball right before a break in the action, this is the lineup they should utilize:

Damian Lillard

CJ McCollum

Rodney Hood

Gary Trent Jr.

Jusuf Nurkic

This group has elite floor spacing, three on-ball creators, and five guys that can make a play at the end of a shot clock. If this group ever gets on the floor, the offensive rating would be astronomically high.

Now on to the group for a one-and-done defensive possession:

Damian Lillard

Gary Trent Jr.

Robert Covington

Derrick Jones Jr.

Jusuf Nurkic

You could make the argument that Lillard shouldn’t be in this lineup and instead go with Collins, but Dame is the best player and leader of the team; there’s no way he won’t be out there if the game is on the line. Even with him, this group has great size, switch capability, and rim protection.

The closing lineups should look similar to the two variations of starting lineups already listed. It just depends on the opponent as well as the score. If you require more offense, play Covington at the four down the stretch. If you need more defense, play Covington at the three and bring in Jones Jr.

Although we likely aren’t going to see much of it, this lineup would be a lot of fun:

Damian Lillard

Gary Trent Jr.

Rodney Hood

Robert Covington

Derrick Jones Jr.

Small ball is in vogue right? Why not trot this group out on occasion? We saw teams play without a traditional big at various times last year, and this would certainly be a dynamic group to try out. They could switch everything, and most importantly, have a spaced floor for pick-and-roll with Dame and Jones Jr. This unit needs to be utilized. Please, Terry Stotts – – make this happen!

Let’s now take a look at who should crack the rotation and play significant minutes. Here’s a ranking of the players based on how many minutes they should play:

Damian Lillard

Jusuf Nurkic

Robert Covington

C.J. McCollum

Gary Trent Jr.

Derrick Jones Jr.

Rodney Hood

Enes Kanter/Zach Collins

Anfernee Simons

Carmelo Anthony

Nassir Little

Harry Giles

The Kanter and Collins battle for backup center minutes is going to be fascinating. Does the team still have faith in Collins, or are they committed to moving on from him next offseason (when he’ll be a restricted free agent)?

Collins has not yet shown the consistency or the durability to be locked into a rotation spot. Do the Blazers have the patience to continue to play him significant minutes when they have a superior option? Do they continue to find time for him at the four when they have Jones Jr. and Anthony seeking playing time?

Kanter is a solid backup center that fits perfectly in Stotts’ drop back defensive system. He probably will give the Blazers a better chance of winning night to night in the regular season. But he doesn’t have the ceiling or the defensive chops of Collins’ to warrant significant minutes at the highest levels.

The advantage of a professional like Kanter is knowing he will remain a great teammate and locker room presence, even if he is not getting the minutes he desires. If his number is called, like it was in the Blazers Conference Finals run two years ago, he’ll be ready.

How Stotts deals with the Carmelo situation will be important as well. He shouldn’t be playing any more than 15 minutes a night if everyone is healthy. And frankly, on certain nights, he shouldn’t get any playing time at all. But as a future hall of famer, who also showed loyalty in returning to Portland, will the pressure to play him outweigh what’s best for the team?

The backup point guard position is the weakest aspect of this team. Olshey chose not to get a veteran to fill that role and instead rely on Anfernee Simons, who doesn’t have the greatest track record. The Blazers should go back to staggering Lillard and McCollum, which would keep one of them on the floor at all times. That is much easier to do with the emergence of Trent Jr.

If Simons is your fifth guard and only plays when one of Lillard, McCollum, Trent Jr., and Hood are out, that’s not the worst situation in the world. Portland could also opt to play bigger in the event any one of those top four are absent.

It’s hard to envision Nassir Little or Harry Giles getting much time. With a 72-game, truncated season, perhaps there will be more opportunities than expected, but when you’re outside the top 10 in the rotation, minutes are going to be sparse. That’s one of the downsides to being a win-now team – – the youngsters don’t have as much leeway or opportunity to develop and learn through experience.

This upcoming season should be a lot of fun and perhaps one of the most successful in recent memory. How Stotts’ manages the updated roster will be instrumental in just how fun and successful it will ultimately be.