Portland Trail Blazers: Predicting the Blazers’ crunch time lineup in 2020-21

Much has been debated about who will start when the Portland Trail Blazers open the 2020-21 campaign. Here’s a prediction on who finishes those close games.

If there’s one thing you can always count on when it comes to the Portland Trail Blazers, a flare for the dramatics would certainly be it. Individually, the Blazers have the offensive talent to run the power bill up on a scoreboard and put up 120+ on any day ending in “y.”

Unfortunately, their matador defense has guaranteed that fans’ heart rates followed that same 120 over-under line.

That offsetting often led to unnecessarily-close games. Yet even so, the Blazers’ +1.2 point differential in fourth quarters was a number that only three teams could eclipse in 2019-20.

In the final five minutes of games within five points, their five most frequented scorers — Lillard, McCollum, Anthony, Trent Jr., and Nurkic — shot an ungodly 36-of-64 (56.3 percent) from the field, 18-of-34 (52.9 percent), and combined for a whopping +98 plus-minus in the Orlando bubble.

Variance would probably suggest that this would be unsustainable over a full 72-game season in 2020-21. But, as Portland’s offseason roster additions pivot them from mere Playoff lock to certified Western Conference Finals vier, the odds of them needing to play “hero ball” and turn sliders up in late-game situations should become a bit less needed.

The question is this: that aforementioned five-man group excelled offensively in crunch time last season. But in adding a superior defender, such as, say, Derrick Jones Jr. or Robert Covington, who gets the boot?

The easy answer is probably Trent Jr., or even Anthony. But Olshey’s comments sort of suggest otherwise in regards to Anthony. Here’s what he said in Monday’s press conference.

"“I also think what’s important is … guys get too caught up in who starts. It’s really about who finishes games. I think based on matchups, based on what we need on the floor, you know the trust factor with ‘Melo in terms of making big shots and understanding what it takes as you guys all saw in the bubble, to close out a Playoff-caliber game, you know that’s where we’ll need Melo, and we want him to be fresh in those minutes.”"

There’s a lot to appreciate about that brief 83-word segment. Olshey is absolutely correct in his assessment that who finishes games will always be more important than who starts. Portland is a +0.4 in first quarters; that’s never been the problem.

Percentages might suggest that Anthony would be the odd man out. But here’s what to like: Anthony may not be a superstar anymore, but he still carries a bit of the allure in circles. Many of the shots Anthony hit were on decent contests because who’s leaving a 10-time All-Star alone on the perimeter?

Call it a gravitational pull: if Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum decide to probe the middle of the lane and attack, defenders aren’t going to be so diligent about leaving Anthony alone.

But enough of that. Should the Portland Trail Blazers be entertaining a change, Robert Covington would be the most reasonable addition. Under the same parameters — last five minutes, score within five — Covington was an impressive 6-of-14, which makes him about identical to Trent (6-of-13).

He would obviously be a plus addition on the defensive end. In Minnesota and Houston’s crunch time possessions, he defended players ranging from athletic specimens like Russell Westbrook, to more crafty off-the-dribble threats such as Bojan Bogdanovic, and found success. Tracking numbers suggest he’s a bit less effective at locking on defensively in fourth quarters.

When everything clicks, he can excel with full-on “stunts” where he can lunge at offensive players and force turnovers, or even take on one-on-one assignments. It looks a bit like this.

In any case, this isn’t like football, where if you have multiple quarterbacks, you really have none. Chalk it up as yet another luxury for the Portland Trail Blazers this season.

Based on what we know and what Neil Olshey said, my projection would be that the Opening Day “finishers” end up being that Lillard-McCollum-Trent-Anthony-Nurkic lineup. They hold the crown for now, and should be able to fall to normalcy before anything changes.