Portland Trail Blazers: 3 reasons to be excited about second-round pick CJ Elleby

No. 2: Elleby’s efficiency probably isn’t as bad as imagined

Call it an Allen Iverson fan’s intuition. The second the Portland Trail Blazers selected Elleby with the No. 46 overall selection, it felt like a guarantee that one phrase would be trending across social media: “39.6 percent from the field.”

Efficiency and percentages have long felt like the types of criteria that only those who have played the game at an extended level truly understand. Among Elleby’s greatest flaws, he often got a bit overconfident with his shot selection, which led to some disconcerting percentages.

A deeper dive into context helps explain why Elleby’s numbers looked as they did. In fact, I’d almost sort of liken it to a fellow Pacific Northwest sensation in the NFL in Justin Herbert.

Remember all of the question marks pundits had surrounding Herbert’s ability to transition at the professional level? Every expert had a take on his accuracy, or were quick to knife into why he wasn’t ready mentally.

But no one was forthcoming about the personnel and play calling around him: not a single one of Herbert’s receivers at the University of Oregon is on an NFL roster as we speak, and only one of them was drafted (in the seventh-round). The point? The talent around you means everything.

This isn’t an indictment on Elleby’s teammates. They were talented. But within Washington State head coach Kyle Smith’s Princeton offense, Elleby was asked to do quite a bit over the last two seasons.

On film, a steady dose of his shots came through him flashing through the middle of the lane, working the “nail” to get midrange shots in the teeth of the defense.

That process had its benefits. But at the professional level, Elleby should be to see upticks in his true shooting percentages, because Portland figures to use him more as a catch-and-shoot threat.

Defenses could key in on him a bit more at the collegiate level since he was the No. 1 option — and his No. 2 teammate shot 34.0 percent on 15.1 shot attempts.

Context deserves to be used there, too. Basketball has been around for seven-and-a-half-decades, and fans still struggle with the notion that higher volume often equates to lower efficiency.

Elleby shot 46.7 percent at the rim in 2019-20, and didn’t always have the easiest time creating elite separation. Surrounded by better talent, there’s reason to feel optimistic about his growth.