Portland Trail Blazers: Tyler Johnson looks like an affordable free agent guard to target

The Portland Trail Blazers will likely be in need of a bargain free agent guard to captain their second unit. A player like Tyler Johnson could be one that fits that bill well.

It’s sort of amusing just how far we’ve allowed a mid-level exception and a few millions to stretch our imagination beyond limit. Over the last few weeks, Portland Trail Blazers observers have convinced themselves (ourselves) that there’s so strong a chance that players like Danilo Gallinari, Jae Crowder, or Jerami Grant are going to take pay cuts to relocate to Rip City.

Do we completely believe it?

Me personally, probably not. But that’s the beauty of what they call “free agency fever.” You can social distance, wear a mask, lock the doors, set the alarm — free agency fever knows no resistance.

Contractually, the Blazers have already signed their heavyweights and main eventers. Now, the worry is on the undercard, so to speak. In Danny Leroux’s recent salary cap primer for The Athletic, he briefly brought up an affordable, overlooked guard that reasonably fits into Portland’s wheelhouse in Tyler Johnson.

That’s a name you might remember; on the penultimate day of the 2019-20 regular season, Johnson was among those most responsible for nearly ending the Blazers’ postseason streak, with a 16-point scoring performance off the bench, a segment in one of the best stretches of his career.

From Aug. 7 to Aug. 23 — the back-four of the pivotal regular season games on the NBA campus and a sweep against Toronto Raptors — Johnson averaged 14.8 points, 2.1 rebounds and 2.4 assists on 49.4 percent shooting from the floor, 44.9 percent from 3-point range (on 49 attempts), and a perfect 100 percent from the charity stripe.

That leads to a potentially-interesting theory: is Johnson one of those players that benefits from a lack of crowd pressure? We knew coming into Orlando play that some ballers would be more at ease in the “open gym” like atmosphere with no fans.

It’s a mere spitball, but it could make Johnson a coveted player since the NBA doesn’t appear to believe it will have fans, hence the potential early start.

Johnson fits the mold of the type of ideal player Portland could plug-and-play, given his ability to fit into systems quickly. If the Portland Trail Blazers were on Johnson’s radar, it would mark his fourth team in three seasons, a development that might very well be the reason he doesn’t come to Portland.

His situation played out a lot like the Blazers saga with Carmelo Anthony did. Brooklyn paid a large offer sheet to Johnson in 2016, only to have the Miami Heat match it. But four years couldn’t stop what was meant to be.

So, the Blazers are going up against sentimental value — that, and the allure of playing alongside Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. But, his value diminishes when the Nets’ guards are at full health.

One takeaway from Johnson’s tape is just how concerted an effort the Nets were, in getting clean looks for him. The Nets loved those drag screen actions with Johnson, sometimes with two different players.

In return, Johnson rewarded them with excellent decisions going downhill, either through quick dribbles that got him into midrange shots, or deliberate 3-point attempts. He also had some success in the catch-and-shoot.

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Johnson has offensive versatility, but defensively, he’s no liability, either. His defensive numbers have historically been average, or in a lot of cases, above average. Impact metrics like D-PIPM (-0.38), D-RPM (-0.6), and D-RAPTOR (-0.99) don’t paint Johnson positively. But, opposing scorers shot 2.6 percentage points lower when guarded by him. That’s a fine way to support an case, but let’s get one thing straight:

Even if Johnson does defend at an average level, you’ve got to take that with a handshake and a smile. After watching the Blazers’ 28th-ranked defense — and reminder: there are 30 NBA teams — average should be a baseline goal worth attaining.

The Nets run a defensive tenet that is somewhat similar to the Blazers. They keep bigs dropped, content to live with floaters and midrange shots. Brooklyn’s defense was different from a lot of the NBA. It went under screens, and forced average shooters to win games with 3-pointers in volume. So, Johnson wouldn’t be a complete stranger.

Johnson historically fares better when allowed to run the “1.” He tied for the best assist rate of his career, something that bodes well playing with Gary Trent Jr. and Anfernee Simons. Most of those reads were remedial, quick handoffs into a pass to the next player around him.

But, there are some flat-out gems on tape. And he’s shown he can hit the open man, even if his 3.0 assist per game average isn’t exciting.

The sky won’t be the limit, per se, on what the Blazers can do this offseason. But Tyler Johnson is one of a few players the Blazers could keep eyes out for, should the market not be too crowded.