Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard had his best NBA season in 2020. There’s no reason why he can’t be the MVP of the league in 2021.
Damian Lillard had career highs in almost every single category for the Portland Trail Blazers in the 2020 season. Not only did he raise his game from a statistical standpoint, but his play in the seeding games in the NBA bubble showed how he could be the best player in the league.
He deservedly won the Bubble MVP for these performances, and the credit he got from the national media and his peers was on a different level to before.
Players in small markets don’t always get the credit they deserve, but Dame’s play this season put him on the national stage. He will likely make first-team All-NBA for the 2019/20 season and probably finish in the top five in MVP voting too.
With his extra deep shooting and newfound efficiency, we saw a new version of Damian Lillard. The 2019/20 version is better than before. He takes fewer midrange shots, more threes and more shots at the rim. And of course, he is clutch. We knew he was clutch before, but some of his shotmaking down the stretch of games this year was on a whole new level.
This is why I feel he has a great chance of being the MVP in 2021.
Team record is a big part of the MVP conversation. With a healthy Jusuf Nurkic, you can probably add five extra wins to the record. Once you add the return of Rodney Hood and Zach Collins, this team probably wins another seven – ten games than they did in 19/20. The injury luck was terrible. Even Dame and CJ McCollum were off for four or more games each. Both of these guys are players who don’t usually miss large amounts of games.
The injuries won’t be at this level in the 2021 season, so you can probably pencil this team in for at least 47 wins. They won 53 games in the 2018/19 season with a lesser version of Dame, but the Western Conference wasn’t stacked like it is now. 47 is still a great win total, and if they are fully healthy, it could be 50 + wins.
Anywhere around 50 wins is enough for your team’s best player to be in the MVP conversation.
Here’s where it gets interesting. The main guys who are in the running for MVP are James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James.
I think right away; we can scratch LeBron James in terms of him winning another MVP. He probably doesn’t lose much from this year to next year, and I think he will still be top five in MVP voting for at least another year or two, but I don’t think he wins another regular-season MVP award. He isn’t at the dominant peak that he was before in the regular season, and with Anthony Davis in tow, he doesn’t need to.
Giannis and Harden are both interesting cases, as their teams are at crossroads in terms of where they are going. The Milwaukee Bucks went out in the second round of the playoffs this year, and it was close to being a sweep. This isn’t on Giannis, but he may not be on the Bucks next season. Or if he is, it may be with another co-star, thus impacting his crazy regular season stats.
Giannis will be as good next year as he was in 2019, but if he ends up with another All-NBA talent, he may not have the counting stats for MVP.
James Harden is probably Dame’s main competition for the award.
Firstly, the Houston Rockets may go out in the second round. This may mean that there is a trade, or that Daryl Morey gets fired. This would change things significantly for Harden.
Let’s say they both have similar team records in 2020/21, but we use this year’s individual stats.
Damian Lillard
30 points, 4.3 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.3 blocks.
52.4 percent from two, 40.1 percent from three, 88.8 percent from the line.
62.7 percent true shooting percentage, 56.3 percent effective field goal percentage.
+10.6 net rating, 127.1 points per 100 possessions.
James Harden
34.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.9 blocks.
55.6 percent from two, 35.5 percent from three, 86.5 percent from the line
62.6 percent true shooting percentage, 54.3 percent effective field goal percentage
+3.8 net rating, 127.7 points per 100 possessions.
The last two lines of each breakdown are probably the most important ones to look at. Yes, the scoring numbers are essential, but Harden takes ten percent more shots per game than Dame. So to break this down, you need to look at the per 100 possessions stat above.
They both scored at almost an identical rate, with nearly identical efficiency. The on / off number reflects the fact that the Rockets had a better bench.
If these stats were similar next year, then this is a wash. Voting would then come down to individual voter’s preferences as the stats would be very similar.
This then leaves two others who are likely to be in the running, Stephen Curry and Luka Doncic.
Steph is a known quantity, but if he is fit and the Warriors win 50 plus games, he is likely to be in the running. As his two MVP years he only played with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, playing with another 20 point per game scorer in Andrew Wiggins may limit his counting stats.
But if he is Curry of old, and averages 25 plus points a game on shooting efficiency of 50 / 40 / 90 splits, then he will be in the running. Health is the key for him though; he can’t play 60 games and be in the running for MVP.
Doncic is another threat. With the Dallas Mavericks having one of the best offenses in NBA history this season, the legend of Luka continues to grow. He almost averaged a 30-point triple-double this season and had clutch shots in both the regular season and playoffs—all at just 21-years-old.
If Luka improves again next season and the Mavericks win 50 games, he will also be in the running for MVP. He is too dominant to not be in the conversation.
Dame’s efficient scoring, combined with a potential 50 win season, would have him firmly in the MVP discussion next season. If he has the year he had this year and they win 50 plus games, then there is a good chance that he wins MVP. He is healthier than a lot of his competitors, and he also has a narrative on his side.
Even if fans don’t like the narrative part of the voting process, it’s all part of it. Dame’s narrative is that he hasn’t won an MVP before and that he plays in a small market. Just like LeBron got more votes this year because of his age, narrative matters.
Let’s also keep in mind that Dame was sixth and fourth in MVP voting the last two years when his play wasn’t on the level it is now.
Damian Lillard is an MVP caliber player. In January this season and then in the seeding games in the Bubble, he was the best player in the NBA. Next year, there is no reason he can’t lift the MVP trophy.