How have Portland Trail Blazers performed historically in must-win games?

One more loss ends the season for the Portland Trail Blazers. Can we find faith in how Blazers players have performed in past win-or-go-home games?

If someone had told you at the start of the 2019-20 season that the Portland Trail Blazers would be playing a win-or-go-home postseason game during the summer, chances are, you’d have taken them up on that offer. It would have meant the Blazers potentially took another step forward after finishing as a Western Conference finalist a season ago.

Such won’t quite be the case for Portland, who could see their season end as early as tonight if they lose to the Los Angeles Lakers. But one thing that six consecutive Playoff appearances has afforded them is that they do have experience in must-win games. And for what it’s worth, head coach Terry Stotts has played in 11 elimination games, and owns a 4-7 record.

Even without Damian Lillard — invariably the heart and soul of the organization — out with a knee injury, perhaps one can find some solace in how the rest of the team has performed in games of this magnitude.

For future reference’s sake, here’s how Lillard has performed in win-or-go-home games: 25.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 1.2 steals per game on 42.6 percent from the field, 28.9 percent 3-point range and 92.6 percent from the field. The five-time All-Star has won four of those 10 postseason games. Portland will have its hands full trying to compensate for that. But, here’s how other notable Portland Trail Blazers have fared.

CJ McCollum:

— Record: 3-5 in 8 games
— Per Game Stats: 23.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.1 turnovers per game
— Per Game Percentages: 53.0 percent from the field, 50.0 percent from 3-point range, 76.0 percent from the free throw line
— (+1) +/-

The first thing that jumps out with CJ McCollum is how efficient he is in must-win games. His reputation as an excellent offensive sidekick has been well-documented, but to do so at these percentages provides a bit of hope for tonight’s Game Five.

Those aforementioned statistics don’t account for anything pre-2014, when McCollum, a seldom-used bench prospect, played garbage minutes during the Spurs blowouts. But he has a number of marquee must-win games on his résumé. Among them include: the 17-of-29 performance in Game Seven against Denver, his pre-star breakout games against Memphis, and the Pelicans series when he was the lone bright spot.

In the Lakers-Blazers series, McCollum is averaging 20.0 points per game on 41.9 percent shooting. It would be understandable if he weren’t up to his usual brilliance, given his back fracture — his “spinal,” as he so enthusiastically recited in honor of Mike Tyson. But he’s statistically performed at an All-Star level against regular season defenses without Lillard. So, past history provides us with a reason to be excited about the potential of tonight.

Carmelo Anthony:

— Record: 4-11 in 15 games
— Per Game Stats: 23.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 and steals per game
— Per Game Percentages: 40.2 percent from the field, 21.9 percent from 3-point range, 80.9 percent from the free throw line
— (-88) +/-

Carmelo Anthony hasn’t historically been quite as potent an offensive weapon in must-win games. He’s generally been more efficient in the opening games of series. But for the most part, there isn’t a major droppage in his per game numbers.

One trend that jumped off the page: Anthony has produced just one block in 15 win-or-go-home games — Game Five of a 2006 first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers. Perhaps as an offset, he’s been a menace in the passing lanes. And it’s more likely than not, he’s contributed defensively beyond those counting statistics.

The 10-time All-Star has also had much more success in must-win games as he’s aged. Consider this: in Denver, he went 1-7 in 8 games, and averaged 20.4 points on 33.7 percent as a younger player.

In New York, though, he was red hot, going 2-3 in 5 games, and averaging 35.0 points and 7.2 rebounds on 47.5 percent from the field.

Anthony, at this age and role, isn’t quite able to generate superstar-level production on a nightly basis. But a player of his guile and skill can still find ways to be among the best players on any floor he’s on. With added offensive responsibility tonight, he could be poised to build upon his last two games, in which he’s contributed 18.0 points per night on 42.9 percent shooting.

Here are a few other Portland Trail Blazers players of note, even despite the limited sample size.

Jusuf Nurkic:

— Record: 0-1 in 1 game
— Per Game Stats: 18.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 3.0 steals, and 2.0 blocks per game
— Per Game Percentages: 69.2 percent from the field, 0.0 percent from 3-point range, and 0.0 percent from the free throw line
— (+2) +/-

Hassan Whiteside:

— Record: 2-1 in 3 games
— Per Game Stats: 8.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 0.3 assists and 3.3 blocks per game
— Per Game Percentages: 47.4 percent from the field and 54.5 percent from the free throw line
— (+18) +/-

Jusuf Nurkić and Hassan Whiteside have put up numbers that are at about what you would expect in today’s setting. Nurkić’s lone win-or-go-home performance came during the Blazers-Pelicans series in 2018, while Whiteside had each of his three during a rocky tenure in Miami.

There’s not enough conclusive data for each to predict how differently they could play tonight. Nurkić seemed to finally have his way with the Lakers’ defense in Game Four, albeit in a blowout loss. His frontcourt mate hasn’t seemed to fully adjust to the Orlando bubble, and the minutes demotion that came with it.

Action Network has the Portland Trail Blazers pegged as 13.5-point underdogs without Lillard, which suggests that they don’t have much faith in them to succeed. On the year, Portland owns a -7.09 net rating in 1,093 Lillard-less minutes. But if a few of Portland’s catalysts can have a vintage performance, they can, perhaps at the very least, go out swinging.