No. 1: Portland struggles in third quarters … but the L.A. has been even worse
The Blazers’ offense has produced at record-breaking levels in 2019-20. But you know what else has become a broken record? Listing of weaknesses that have come back to bite them on a game-to-game basis.
The Blazers are 7-2 in Orlando play. But four of those of those wins have come within a similar arc: lead the game at halftime, get dominated in the third quarter, and launch a comeback in the fourth quarter.
They’ve been comically incompetent in third quarters, producing a -18.8 net rating. I’ve never been one to buy stock into advanced metrics unless it’s wholly evident on film. To think about the amount of games Portland nearly jeopardized simply because post-halftime drowsiness is alarming.
Portland hasn’t been a net positive in third quarters since the 2013-14 Playoffs, when their offense worked through the flow of LaMarcus Aldridge’s post play. But in sticking true to the theme of today’s topic, here’s one thing that could work in their favor:
As rough as they’ve had it in third quarters, the Los Angeles Lakers have had it even rougher. That isn’t representative of how their team worked pre-bubble, but numbers like this could go a long way towards the Trail Blazers’ confidence.
For them to be matched up with a team that can’t take advantage of their biggest weakness will be a storyline to watch for. It’s easy to dismiss it as just an Orlando thing, but the Lakers haven’t been an excellent third quarter team (+1.1 for the year) at any point in Frank Vogel’s tenure.
As for what this means for the rest of the game is yet to be decided. In the Lillard-McCollum era, the Portland Trail Blazers have always been the type of team to throw the first punch, and open up slight-to-sizeable leads in the opening frames, especially in the Playoffs.
If they can manage to produce in the first halves of games, and remain true to their reputation as a resilient, elite late-game group, their chances of stealing games as an underdog rise dramatically.
It’s unclear as to what part of the riddle needs to be solved. One could point the finger to Terry Stotts, but historically, he’s had successful third quarter teams — think back to the Michael Redd-led Bucks, or even last season’s regular season Blazers.
Perhaps it’s fatigue, something that could doom them in this very series. But amongst the star power and offensive brilliance both teams bring, the games are likely to be decided in who comes out of the break with the most ambition.