Two games into the Nurkic-Collins experiment, the Portland Trail Blazers have been promising. But how far can they ride that wave in the modern NBA?
The euphoria of Friday’s season-altering win over the Grizzlies was quickly washed away by Boston’s seismic shooting display two days later. But two games into the Orlando experiment, the Portland Trail Blazers are sitting at 1-1, and ½ of a game out of the No. 9 seed.
The biggest surprises, literally and figuratively, have come in how quickly Jusuf Nurkić and Zach Collins have reentered Portland’s main fray so seamlessly. Nurkić, in particular, has performed at an All-NBA level — 24.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists on 54.8 percent shooting — over his first two games. And in the process, he’s allowed the Blazers to re-imagine their offensive ceiling.
In both the scrimmages and restart play, the Blazers have made much more of a concerted effort to create more offense out of Nurkić and Collins’ high-post passing ability, as well as allowing them to make reads from the top of the key.
In watching it live, the mind couldn’t help but wander back to my all-time favorite team — the 2002 Sacramento Kings, and how much success they had finding cutters and open men. The Chris Webber / Vlade Divac two-headed monster ratcheted it to the tenth power and generated a 2002 NBA championsh— um, Pacific Division championship out of it.
But, the surface-level similarities are there, from big-to-big passing, to hitting tight windows on film.
The numbers articulate that, too. Call it the “Nurkić and Collins effect:”
Portland with Nurkić and Collins in 2019-20:
— 61.7 percent of Portland’s made shots have been assisted
— 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio
— 65.0 TS% (124.5 points per 100 possessions)
Portland without Nurkić and Collins in 2019-20:
— 48.2 percent of Portland’s made shots have been assisted
— 1.55 assist-to-turnover ratio
— 56.6% TS (112.0 points per possession)
The two-game sample sizes isn’t enough to be in arms about, but to see the Portland Trail Blazers go from dead-last in points created off assists to a top-five team (74.5 PPG) is some special stuff. With respect to Collins, Nurkić has by and large been suspect No. 1. In Portland’s first two games in the Orlando restart, he ranks first in usage percentage (28.0%), despite playing in 23 fewer minutes than Damian Lillard.
It’s also created easier scoring opportunities for CJ McCollum, a breath of fresh air considering how hard he has to work to generate his looks. Since the reboot, McCollum is 9-of-13 on Nurkić feeds. They love to run the quick give-and-go from big-to-guard, a staple in the LaMarcus Aldridge era with Wesley Matthews, Mo Williams, Lillard and McCollum with their “21 action.”
And in connection, Collins has used most of his court vision to benefit Lillard (4-of-9) and Nurkić (4-of-6). Sample size be darned, that’s the kind of efficiency you want to see out of this Portland Trail Blazers team.
But, for all of the good done by placing Nurkic and Collins together…
… Do we have a definitive answer to how this works against some of the NBA’s elite teams?
The Blazers won’t always have position-to-position nightmare matchups the way they did against Boston. In between watching Carmelo Anthony and Collins have to try their hand in guarding Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum — and Lillard subsequently taking on the Tatum assignment despite giving up six inches.
But think about how the Blazers figure to match up against other teams that don’t run traditional two-big lineups (think Houston, the L.A. Clippers, etc) — how will they respond?
It’s too early to get alarmed about the Blazers’ -9.3 net rating with Nurkić and Collins in 35 minutes. But the overall body of work is something to think about. Pre-2020, the multifaceted bigs shared the court for 118 minutes, and had that produced a -8.3.
We’re mostly playing devil’s advocate, and entertaining the question. The Blazers also seemed to find some success in that smaller lineup with Gary Trent Jr. in the fold, and Anthony at the “4,” which compromises one of their bigs, relegating them to the bench. But, the two are not only too talented to have that trend continue to spiral, but also, with both of them entering the peaks of their respective careers together, there’s reason for optimism.
The long lay-off in between games provided them with a chance to become better passers and scorers along the perimeter, and that much is evident on film. Assuming they each quickly nip their biggest problem in the bud — over-aggression and a tendency to pick up quick, unnecessary fouls — they project as one of the NBA’s greater frontcourts in 2020, and a perfect complement to their scoring machine backcourt mates.
But this, as I like to say, is merely some food for thought and discussion.