Here’s why Barkley is right about Portland Trail Blazers beating the Lakers

Charles Barkley recently said if the Portland Trail Blazers made the playoffs, they would beat the Lakers in the first round. Here’s why he may be right.

Year after year, Charles Barkley has had high hopes for the Portland Trail Blazers. Although he’s never gone as far as predicting them to win the NBA Championship, he frequently gives a “Charles Barkley guarantee” that the Blazers will win the Western Conference Championship. While the Trail Blazers haven’t done their part in proving him right up to this point, there’s a good chance that they will this year.

The Trail Blazers are coming off a year in which they reached the Western Conference finals, where the Kevin Durant-less Golden State Warriors swept them. But that’s hardly an embarrassing result. While they made some significant changes in the off-season, they kept most of their young core under contract this year. The only issue was, they couldn’t keep them on the court.

At the time of the NBA’s suspension in mid-March, the Blazers held a disappointing 29-37 record. However, it is no secret that most of their struggles this year have come as a result of significant injuries to Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins, and Rodney Hood. There have been no known locker room issues, and Damian Lillard has had a career year, averaging 28.9 PPG, 7.8 AST, and 4.3 REB. But they have still shown a significant struggle to win games, even against some of the league’s worst teams, such as the Warriors, Knicks, and Hawks.

So why would Charles Barkley think that the Blazers had a chance of upsetting LeBron James‘  Lakers in this year’s playoffs? Well, take a look at this stat given by Kevin O’Connor and Chris Vernon of “The Ringer NBA Show.”

This year, the Portland Trail Blazers outscored opponents by 1.3 Points Per 100 Possessions (+1.3) when Damian Lillard was on the floor (and Jusuf Nurkic off the floor, obviously).

Last season, the Portland Trail Blazers outscored opponents by 1.9 Points Per 100 Possessions (+1.9) when Damian Lillard was on the floor, and Jusuf Nurkic was off. Thus, in a sense, the post-Nurkic injury Blazers that made the Western Conference Finals last year were only a little bit better than this year’s current team.

However, when Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic were both on the floor last season, the Blazers outscored their opponents by 10.8 Points Per 100 Possessions (+10.8!!!). If the Blazers were able to keep that +10.8 Points Per 100 Possessions up for 48 minutes a night, they would tie with the 1996/1997 Chicago Bulls as the 7th best team in NBA history in terms of point differential.

This year’s Milwaukee Bucks have outscored their opponents by an average of 11.2 Points Per 100 Possessions (+11.2). In comparison, this year’s Los Angeles Lakers have outscored their opponents by an average of 7.4 Points Per 100 Possessions (+7.4), to give some context to the numbers.

Would a top 10 all-time lineup in terms of point differential be enough to upset LeBron and Anthony Davis Lakers? We’ll have to find out. But Charles Barkley isn’t as crazy as he seems in thinking so. If Jusuf Nurkic comes back and plays anything like he was during the 2018-2019 season, the Blazers could make some serious noise out west.

However, for the Blazers to get the chance to do so, they will have to edge out the Grizzlies, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, etc. for rights to the 8th and final spot in the western conference.

Let’s hope that they can start on the right foot in their 1 pm, July 31st matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies.