Although the Portland Trail Blazers restart schedule looks tough on the surface, looking at each opponent’s motivation to win could help their playoff hopes.
Why is this Necessary?
The Portland Trail Blazers are among numerous teams that are going to be fighting their hardest for seeding during the 8 “regular season” games in the NBA’s Orlando restart. Others are going to treat them as if they were pre-season games. For this reason, it is essential to look at each game in the Orlando restart in terms of opponent’s motivation to win to truly determine a team’s strength of schedule.
just because a team is scheduled to play the Lakers or the Clippers does not necessarily mean that that game will be tough, as both of their teams could easily find themselves resting their starters towards the end of their eight-game schedules.
To do this, we are going to rank each opponent that the Blazers, Pelicans, and Grizzlies play in terms of their motivation to win on a scale of 1-3, with 1 being “little motivation to win,” 2 being “some motivation to win/hard to determine right now,” and 3 being “a lot of motivation to win.”
This ranking depends heavily on how much cushion – or lack of cushion – the teams have in their current seeding when the games take place, and how much rest the team’s stars might need. While it is mathematically possible that the Kings, Suns, and Spurs also make their way into the race for the 8th and 9th seeds, it seems most realistic that the Grizzlies and Pelicans will be the Blazers’ most likely challengers at this point.
Portland Trail Blazers
Jul 31 – Memphis Grizzlies: For obvious reasons, this game is crucial for both the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers. Although the Grizzlies have a healthy 3.5 game lead over the Blazers for the 8th seed in the west, there is no doubt that they would like to strengthen that lead even more in their first game back from the league’s suspension. Motivation ranking: 3
Aug 2 – Boston Celtics: Boston will be highly motivated to win this game, as they are currently three games back of the Toronto Raptors for the two seed in the east, and 2.5 games ahead of the Miami Heat for the four seed. Getting the two seed will likely be the difference between playing the Magic/Nets in the first round and playing the Sixers/Pacers/Heat. Motivation ranking: 3
Aug 4 – Houston Rockets: The Rockets will be trying very hard to win games at this point in the restart. They currently sit just 1.5 games ahead of the seven seed Mavericks and 2.5 games back of the three seed Nuggets. Although the 3-7 seeds are very unpredictable at this point, it is highly likely that the team that ends up with the seven seed in the west will probably have to face the Clippers in the first round. The Rockets will be trying hard to avoid this scenario. Motivation ranking: 3
Aug 6 – Denver Nuggets: Unless the Nuggets want to go all out on getting the second seed in the west, it isn’t very likely that they will be playing their starters heavy minutes in these eight restart games. With the 3-7 seeds being so unpredictable and home-court advantage not being a factor in these games, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Nuggets to risk injury to keep hold of the three seed in the west. With that being said, I don’t see the Nuggets completely surrendering any games, especially to the Blazers, who they’ve built a rivalry with over the last few seasons. Expect them to show a typical regular-season effort in this game. Motivation ranking: 2
Aug 8 – LA Clippers: Unless the Nuggets make up some ground on the 1.5 game lead that the Clippers currently hold over them for the two seed in the west, I don’t see the Clippers treating this game like anything other than a regular-season game. While I don’t see Paul George and Kawhi Leonard sitting out at this stage in the restart, I can easily see them restricted to 25-30 minutes a game. Motivation ranking: 2
Aug 9 – Philadelphia 76ers: Again, with how unpredictable the 3-7 seeds are in the east right now, it is hard to tell how Philly will play this game. They don’t have any room to fall in the standings but might want to try and rise a spot or two depending on how things play out. Motivation ranking: 2
Aug 11 – Dallas Mavericks: Dallas’ hopes of moving up in the standings may be over at this point in the schedule, but if they are not, Dallas will be doing whatever they can to avoid the seven seed out west that will likely land them a first-round matchup with the Clippers. Motivation ranking: 2
Aug 13 – Brooklyn Nets: With Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, DeAndre Jordan, Spencer Dinwiddie, Taurean Prince, and Wilson Chandler all opting out of Brooklyn’s restart roster, it seems unlikely that the Nets will be very motivated (or equipped) to keep their half-game lead over the 8th seed Orlando Magic in the east. I imagine Brooklyn to use the Orlando restart as a chance to develop their young players. While they may start their first few games going all out, there’s no doubt that this Aug 13 game will be nothing more than a scrimmage for the Nets, as they’ll want to rest the players that they do have for the first round of the playoffs. Motivation ranking: 1
New Orleans Pelicans
Jul 30 – Utah Jazz: Although the Jazz don’t have a real reason to try and move up in the standings, they will be giving a reasonable effort in their first game back, although the odds may be against them without Bojan Bogdanovic. It will be interesting to see if the rumored tension between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert has any real effect on the Jazz’s play. Motivation ranking: 2.5
Aug 1 – LA Clippers: Although the Clippers probably won’t have a ton of reason to try and win games towards the end of the restart schedule, I am sure that they will do so in the first few games until they feel comfortable with their lead on the Nuggets. Motivation ranking: 2
Aug 3 – Memphis Grizzlies: Unless the Grizzlies distance themselves from the nine seed so much that they feel like they can pump the breaks a little bit, they will be going all out in this game. Motivation ranking: 3
Aug 6 – Sacramento Kings: Since they are right in the middle of the race for the 8th seed in the west, I imagine Sacramento to be going all out in these games. While they may be mathematically “out” by this point in the restart, they are a young team that will use this opportunity to gain experience, regardless of whether the game is meaningful to them or not. Motivation ranking: 3
Aug 7 – Washington Wizards: Not much needs to be said here. In addition to having virtually no chance of making the playoffs, the Wizards will also be without Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans. Motivation ranking: 1
Aug 9 – San Antonio Spurs: Although the Spurs are in the race for the 8th seed in the west, I imagine their chances of actually getting it will be slim at this point in the restart. Motivation ranking: 1.5
Aug 11 – Sacramento Kings: Since this game is so late in the restart, the Kings may be mathematically eliminated by this point. However, I think that they will use this game to gain experience either way. Motivation ranking: 2.5
Aug 13 – Orlando Magic: Unless the race between the Nets and Magic is somewhat close, I imagine this game being a rest game for the Magic. Motivation ranking: 1
Memphis Grizzlies
Jul 31 – Portland Trail Blazers: This game is hugely important for both the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies. If the Trail Blazers want any chance of catching the Grizzlies for the 8th seed in the west, they will have to win this game. Both teams will be giving their all. Motivation ranking: 3
Aug 2 – San Antonio Spurs: Although they are without LaMarcus Aldridge and are the least talented team among those competing for the 8th seed in the west, the Spurs will be going all out at this stage in the restart to try and extend their playoff streak to 23 years in a row. Motivation raking: 3
Aug 3 – New Orleans Pelicans: For obvious reasons, the Pelicans are going to be giving it their all in this game. Motivation raking: 3
Aug 5 – Utah Jazz: Again, it’s hard to tell what the west will look like at this point, but it’s unlikely it will be settled enough for the Jazz to rest their players. Nobody wants to end up as the seven seed in the west. Motivation ranking: 2.5
Aug 7 – Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder have been an underdog story all season long, and I see them continuing to use that as motivation in the restart. Like the Jazz, they’ll want to avoid the seven seed out west, and we all know Chris Paul wants nothing more than to prove himself as an elite playoff performer. Motivation ranking: 3
Aug 9 – Toronto Raptors: The Raptors don’t have much of a chance (or reason) to catch the Bucks, so I only see them playing their starters heavy minutes in this game if the Celtics are creeping up on them for the two seed in the east. Falling to the three seed would mean playing the Sixers, Pacers, or Heat while keeping the two seed would mean playing the Nets/Magic. Motivation ranking: 1.5
Aug 11 – Boston Celtics: This one is impossible to determine right now because of how late in the eight-game “season” it is. This could end up being a massive game for Boston for reasons mentioned earlier, or it could end up being a rest game, depending on how things play out in the first few games for the Raptors, Celtics, and Heat. Motivation raking: 2
Aug 13 – Milwaukee Bucks: I don’t see any reason why the Bucks would feel the need to try and win this game, or even play their starters. Expect Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton to sit this one out. Motivation raking: 1
The Verdict
To compare each of the three teams’ schedules, I took an average of the motivation rankings above. While these rankings are entirely subjective, they provide great context about whether each teams’ opponents will be trying hard to move up in the standings or using these games to rest for the real playoffs. Next to these averages is also each team’s average opponent win percentage. Although players will be well rested from the four months that they had off from games, they will be doing whatever they can to prevent injury whenever possible.
Portland Trail Blazers’ Average Opponent Motivation: 2.25 (Avg. Opponent Win Percentage: 60%)
New Orleans Pelicans’ Average Opponent Motivation: 2.06 (Avg. Opponent Win Percentage: 49.5%)
Memphis Grizzlies’ Average Opponent Motivation 2.38 (Avg. Opponent Win Percentage: 59.7%)
Along with having the most manageable schedule by opponent win percentage, the Pelicans also have far and away the most comfortable schedule among these teams in terms of my motivation ranking. While the Blazers have the hardest schedule by opponent win percentage, they have an easier schedule than the Grizzlies when looking at my motivation ranking.
If the Blazers want to have any chance of making the playoffs, they’re going to have to beat the Grizzlies in their first game back and win a good chunk of their other seven games. The Pelicans may win 6 or 7 of their eight games, giving the Blazers the tall task of passing the Grizzlies for a chance to play in a playoff tournament for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west.