Trail Blazers: Why playing Carmelo Anthony at the “3” isn’t as bad as you think

The decision to play Carmelo Anthony at small forward has become a divisive topic among Blazers fans. Here’s why it may not be as detrimental as advertised.

I’ve never stepped foot into the state of Oregon, but if I could hazard a guess, I’d imagine it was pretty windy in Portland last week. The collective sigh among Portland Trail Blazers fans after Terry Stotts’ Zoom conference almost guarantees as much. Here’s one thing we learned for certain:

Putting the terms “Carmelo Anthony” and “3” in the same sentence is completely fine when discussing shot attempts and celebrations — but not so much when we’re talking position slots.

And with the snap of a finger, the notion that “basketball is positionless” became nothing more than a non sequitur. Those who are (understandably) worried about Anthony defending small forwards — something we haven’t seen primarily since the Anthony / Porzingis days — can find assurance in that thought. That just because Anthony’s the middle picture on TNT’s starting lineups, and he’s a “3” in theory, that doesn’t quite mean he’s guarding those opposing small forwards.

During Anthony’s interview on the Portland Trail Blazers’ official YouTube channel, he said two things that, in my eyes, should be retained for the long haul.

"“The good thing is, I get to go back to my original position, which is playing the 3, where I’m actually very comfortable at that. I’ve been doing that my whole life. Just over the past couple years is where I started moving, transitioning towards playing the “4” more.I think today, in this game, it’s positionless. There’s no positions no more today, so it doesn’t matter, when people put emphasis on, ‘Oh, you’re playing the “3” or you’re playing the “4,” like, we out there playing. The schemes are going to be the same. We’re going to figure it out.”"

And then, when Jason Quick threw out a question about what Carmelo Anthony had seen from Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic, the 10-time All-Star had this response:

"“You know I can’t give you that right now. Only thing I can say is, I’ve been very impressed with kind of just where they at with their health, of course. That’s first and foremost. Zach, in particular, just what he brings to the game. I’ve played against him obviously, but only for a couple of games, or a short period of time, so I’ve never really got an opportunity to see him on other court or be on the court with him to understand what he brings to the game.And unless you’re out there on the court with him, you don’t understand, or you don’t grasp the small things that he does on the court that make a major impact, so that’s something that I see right now and just being in the gym, and watching and just being around.”"

Contrary to popular belief, Carmelo Anthony doesn’t make a ton of defensive mistakes. And if he does, are we not enthused about him being relieved by two of the NBA’s best help defenders? In football terms, there’s a level of comfort a cornerback has knowing he’s got some world-class safeties covering what’s behind him. And while the Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor comparison would be overzealous, the dynamic is there.

And there’s a question rooted within Blazers fans’ trepidation about Anthony guarding “3s” — how scared does one even need to be?

Think about it fundamentally. The Playoffs are largely matchup-dependent and execution based; if a team was going to target Carmelo Anthony’s lack of defense, how would they do it? They would likely either: a) do what Utah did in the 2018 Playoffs, putting him through pick-and-rolls, or b) create isolations.

Here are a few numbers worth meditating on:

Anthony’s defensive numbers in isolation settings:
— 2019-20: opponents are shooting just 12-of-36 (33.3 percent) when isolating Anthony (0.77 PPP)
— 2017-18: opponents shot 38-of-98 (38.8 percent) when isolating Anthony (0.87 PPP)
— 2016-17: opponents shot 19-of-64 (29.7 percent) when isolating Anthony (0.67 PPP)
— 2015-16: opponents shot 13-of-40 (32.5 percent) when isolating Anthony (0.70 PPP)

In each of these scenarios, Synergy rates Carmelo Anthony as somewhere between “good,” “very good,” and “excellent.” And here’s something else to think about: for those unimpressed by the volume in which Anthony found himself in these scenarios … why? Surely, if it were easily exploitable, teams would attack it with much more vigor, no? In 2019-20, he ranks in the 74th percentile. And many of the isolation scores he has given up have come from quicker guards.

Don’t mistake this for Carmelo Anthony’s case for an All-Defensive Team; that’s not the premise. There are certainly flaws. He struggles from time-to-time closing out on spot-ups, absolutely his most consequential defensive flaw. He gives up his most points here. And, he struggles if tasked with defending the ball handlers in pick-and-roll situations. But that’s not unnatural for bigger forwards.

If you remember the Jazz-Thunder series from 2018, when Utah used Joe Ingles and Donovan Mitchell to effectively put Carmelo Anthony and his foot speed in a spotlight and exploit him, perhaps that memory sticks with you. This year, he’s been statistically excellent in guarding pick-and-roll bigs, limiting them to just 46-of-123 (37.4 percent).

Individually, though, Anthony may never overcome the media driven narrative that’s followed him throughout his career, but there’s reason to be hopeful. He may never quite be the analytical dream that Blazers fans are hoping for. But he certainly isn’t the defensive nightmare that should be keeping us awake, either.