No. 1: How optimistic can we be about Carmelo Anthony starting at the “3?”
Something about this feels two, three, maybe 10 years too late.
As someone who’s both cultivated and concluded real-life friendships on the basis of how Carmelo Anthony is viewed, there’s a level of confidence in having watched him over the last few years. And the idea of him defending anything over than true “4s” in 2020 feels a bit worrisome.
Yet, it could soon become a reality; according to Quick, Damian Lillard said he expected to be joined by fellow backcourt mate CJ McCollum, with Carmelo Anthony, Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkić rounding out the starting five.
There’s no question that Anthony can feast offensively against small forwards, particularly in the especially-small NBA. And doubting Hall of Famers isn’t my cup of tea. But on the other end, it feels like a decision based more so on best case scenarios, rather than actual production.
According to Basketball Reference’s play-by-play, Anthony’s been more likely to play center than small forward; he hasn’t logged time at SF since 2016-17, his final year in New York. But the Portland Trail Blazers — ever the nonconformists, believe big lineups could be the recipe towards cooking up success.
Stotts says it isn’t necessarily a matter of Individual, but rather, team defense. But if it doesn’t work out, part of me worries about the detrimental effects it could have on Anthony’s somewhat-remedied reputation. My dad threw out an interesting thought, though:
Could we in some cases see Anthony posting small forwards on offense, and electing to let Collins cover them defensively on occasion?
Per Chad Doing of Rip City Radio 620 and NBC Sports Northwest, no one within the Blazers coaching staff could convince Carmelo Anthony of the benefits of coming off the bench. You understand his side of the story; the Blazers have been solid with him as a starter, but if it fails …. those analytics pitchforks seem to always be raised.
https://twitter.com/chadinripcity/status/1278529486397378563?s=21
A look at the last few years doesn’t help. Per Cleaning the Glass, here’s how Anthony’s teams — and I highlight that because defense is seldom a one-man responsibility — over the last few years. They say that he has played some SF (presumably in those Adams-Grant-Anthony) lineups in Oklahoma City or something similar.
First, let’s look at a year around his athletic prime, pre-knee surgery.
2012-13 — plays small forward 41 percent of time; they allow 107.2 points per 100 (45th percentile). Plays power forward 58 percent of time, allows 106.0 points per 100 (53rd percentile)
And now, two seasons beyond his prime:
2016-17 — plays small forward 91 percent of time; they allow 107.8 points per 100 (43rd percentile). Plays power forward 7 percent of time, allows 120.0 points per 100 (1st percentile, yuck).
2017-18 — plays small forward 10 percent of time; they allow 112.1 points per 100 (24th percentile). Plays power forward 90 percent of time, allows 106.7 points per 100 (67th percentile, elite).
So, somewhat of a mixed bag. And that eases a bit of the concern. The Blazers are banking on the idea that if he gets blown by, they have the requisite help needed to overcome that. Stranger things have happened, I guess?