The Portland Trail Blazers can reach the playoffs with the NBA’s return in July. If they could get there, do they stand any chance of beating the Lakers?
Much has already been made of a potential Portland Trail Blazers – Los Angeles Lakers first-round series. Though they obviously need to win the majority of their games to get there in the first place, none of the other squads will return two rotation players to their squad for the season return.
The Blazers are a few games back from the Grizzlies, but not only do they have the advantage of the tiebreaker because they have played more games than all their competitors, the Blazers have the most experienced squad in the teams vying for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Spurs obviously have some historical championship pedigree but the days of those squad members being around are basically gone. With the announcement of LaMarcus Aldridge’s upcoming surgery, they rely very heavily on DeMar DeRozan. But they just don’t have the experience they used to.
If the Blazers play the way that we know they can with Collins and Nurkic in tow, then they can meet the Lakers in the first round. Though we don’t know how the league will work it, there is obviously no home-court advantage. The league might bring in a rule where the top four seeds get possession at the start of each quarter, but the main thing to note is that the Lakers won’t have the rabid support that they would in a non-COVID playoffs. Being back in the playoffs for the first time in seven years was sure to guarantee the Lakers massive support.
Now focussing on the court, how do the Blazers matchup?
Guard play
This is probably the place where the Blazers can attack the Lakers the most. Though the Lakers still match up well with the Blazers in terms of their guard defenders, the Lakers are nowhere near the Blazers offensively with guard play. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum may be the best guard pairing in the final 22 teams with the Golden State Warriors pairing of Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry out injured.
Danny Green and Avery Bradley are strong guard defenders, but they will have their work cut out for them with this pairing. In the meeting after Kobe Bryant’s death in January, Lillard had 48 points and 10 assists, torching Bradley until he was benched and replaced by Alex Caruso.
To make a potential series against the Lakers competitive, Dame and CJ will both have to go off.
Guard play is by far their best chance at competitiveness
Transition defense
This could be a real problem for the Blazers. One of the most exciting and skilled bigs to ever play the game, in Anthony Davis, playing most of his minutes at the five. His combination with LeBron James, one of the greatest passers of all-time, and one of the best transition players ever, makes the Lakers a nightmare matchup for the Blazers when it comes to transition defense.
Trevor Ariza may be able to guard LeBron without getting totally blown up, but Jusuf Nurkic will have massive problems guarding Davis in transition. Can Zach Collins do a better job? Maybe. Maybe he can tag Davis in transition and stop him scoring on outlet passes on every trip down the floor. So few teams have two guys that can guard LeBron and Davis. This will be a big problem for Stotts on the defensive end of the floor.
Big man play
Similar to above, when it comes to traditional big man play, the Blazers do have some options even if they will struggle when it comes to transition defense. They can protect the rim well, and if Nurkic comes back to start right away, the combo of Collins and Nurkic could do a good job around the basket. If Davis plays exclusively at the five, this makes things a lot tougher though. Especially as this means LeBron is the ball handling four, with Davis stretching Nurkic out to the three-point line.
This matchup isn’t terrible for the Blazers, but it will remain to see if Collins is quick enough to guard LeBron when he plays the four. Carmelo Anthony definitely isn’t anymore.
This is advantage Lakers – the chances of Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee playing a lot of five in the playoffs, is slim. But the Lakers will have better big men, and better defense.
Wing Play
In terms of wings, the Blazers matchup well, Gary Trent Jr and Ariza will do a good job of matching up with Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Trent has been massive this year, and can probably contain Green really well. Both Caldwell-Pope and Green are only spot-up shooters these days so it will mainly be Trent and then small amounts of McCollum when he isn’t guarding the smaller guard threats.
The main issue is LeBron. Ariza has to matchup with LeBron every minute that he is on the court. Otherwise, the next option is probably Collins. Who may not be strong enough, or fast enough.
This one is still advantage Lakers – as LeBron is probably the best player in the league.
Summary
The Blazers guards would need to go off in every game just to get the series to five or at a stretch, six games. The Blazers don’t match up well with LeBron or Davis, meaning anything they do offensively is undone as they probably get torched on the defensive end.
Dame needs to absolutely explode, averaging 40 points a game, for this series to go six games in the Lakers favour. It’s possible – otherwise it’s looking like a pretty tough series.