Game 4 vs. Boston Celtics
Score Prediction: Celtics, 109; Blazers, 99
Record Prediction: 32-38
Previous Matchups:
— Feb. 25 — Celtics, 118; Trail Blazers, 106
Even at full health, it’s difficult to have a ton of faith in the Portland Trail Blazers having enough exploitable matchups working in their favor here.
The Celtics have a chapter book worth of rangy, wiry, switchable defenders at their disposal, and that could come in handy against the Blazers, whose 24.0 percent pick-and-roll frequency ranks No. 2 in the NBA.
Conversely, the Celtics allow just 0.85 points per possession on said pick-and-rolls. They’ve mucked up Portland’s philosophy before, too.
Lillard’s the best point guard in the NBA in my eyes, but Boston’s one of just three teams he shoots under 40 percent against. He’s also never shot above 50 percent against them, something I’d wager is a “one and only” proposition. McCollum’s been slightly more himself, but he’s scored under 20 in 6 of the last 11 meetings against Boston.
Per NBA.com’s matchup tracking data, the Celtics had five different defenders check McCollum for at least two shots during their last meeting. He more than held his own, but it speaks volumes to how many players they have that can contest his craftiness.
Nurkic, Collins, Whiteside and Anthony can feast in the paint, but that’s also far from a guarantee; Boston ranks No. 3 in points in the paint allowed.
There’s something about swingmen that can not only defend Portland’s star guards, but also match them in points that’s worthy of alarm. Consider this Portland’s first slip-up.