Portland Trail Blazers: The best (and worst) clutch scorers in the analytics era

Despite just one title, the Portland Trail Blazers can hang their hats on countless clutch buckets. Here, we take a look at the best (and worst) late-game scorers in team history.

Since the “tracking era” introduced itself in 1996-97, there’s been somewhat of a raging dichotomy between fans who evaluate the game via eye test, and those who prefer formulas and spreadsheets. Factor in Michael Jordan’s unctuous ability to dominate in late games, as well as the ensuing love affair with superstars who ooze with “killer instinct,” and we have enough discussions to last two quarantines. And, it just so happens the Portland Trail Blazers have a few guys who fit the bill, too.

To understand the premise of this piece, take Kobe Bryant, for example. With enough late-game highlights to sit people in theaters and reel off whole movies, fans of the late Laker great will suggest that he’s perhaps the most clutch player to ever play. But analytics fans will suggest that this is only the case because he took more shots than most superstars, and lacks from a percentage standpoint.

It certainly didn’t help that in 2015, SB Nation suggested that Bryant might be the least clutch player in the NBA, but it certainly makes for quite the discussion. So, why not put the Portland Trail Blazers to the test?

The results were surprising, to say the least. Raw totals suggest that perhaps we overlooked the clutch gene of some Blazers’ players, and some were, dare I say, overdramatized? It’s impossible to put these numbers into one single vacuum, and draw a direct, inarguable conclusion, but it does give us a feel for what players thrived under the bright lights.

In a sample ranging from 1996-97 to this very day, I went through, season-for-season, tallying field goals, using these three scenarios as requisite ways to do so:

• Playoff games —  last three minutes; ahead-or-behind by 5 points or less
• Regular season — last three minutes; ahead-or-behind by 5 points or less

• Playoff games — “Hero shots”, last 30 seconds; ahead-or-behind by 3 points or less
• Regular season — “Hero shots”, last 30 seconds; ahead-or-behind by 3 points or less

Also worth noting: I tracked any and every notable Blazer to don the red-and-black. To make it easier to decipher who’s hot and who’s not, the players are put in tiers, based on both efficiency, volume, and overall scoring. That in mind, let’s take a look at which players excelled in these categories.