With 23 games left the Trail Blazers are still outside looking in. Despite their 26-33 record, Portland still has a puncher’s chance for the postseason race.
Here is where the teams contending for the 8th seed out west stand. As of now, the Grizzlies are 3 games up on the Trail Blazers. The Blazers have a half-game lead over the tenth place Pelicans with the Spurs, Suns, and Kings both within a game and a half of the Pels.
With a little more than a quarter of the season left, the playoff race will come down to the way the contending teams manage their schedule and injuries and even more specifically: which team will get hot at the right time.
Let’s break down each team’s case in the race for the eighth seed. What can elevate each team toward that final playoff spot? What is going to hold each team back? What does the remaining schedule look like? Could injuries be the deciding factor? Is Zion good enough to lead the Pelicans? History says it should be the Spurs. Will Damian Lillard do that thing where he scores a billion points and refuses to let the Blazers lose?
First, let’s look at the Memphis Grizzlies who currently sit in the final playoff spot that everyone is chasing. The young Grizzlies have an average age of just under 24 years old, yet they have proved they deserve their spot in the eighth seed. Nevertheless, as the final stretch of the season comes, the Grizzlies own the toughest remaining schedule in the NBA. With multiple matchups against the Eastern Conference powerhouses, such as the Bucks, Raptors, and Celtics, the Grizzlies schedule is nothing short of daunting.
To make things even more difficult, the Grizzlies will be without their emerging star Jaren Jackson Jr. for the “foreseeable future” who is sidelined with a right quad injury, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. On top of that, four minutes into Monday night’s blowout loss to the Clippers, Grizzlies standout rookie Brandon Clarke limped off the court and did not return. Initial reports have cited a possible two-week absence for Clarke as a result.
The Grizzlies, who have lost three straight games now, are losing momentum. Strong play from the Grizzlies young core has led them to this point, but holding onto their playoff spot will be the toughest test many of them have faced in their inexperienced careers. They may need some magic from Ja Morant. At the end of the day, the current lead may still be enough for the Grizzlies to hang on to that final playoff spot they so badly want.
Next up is the ninth-seeded Trail Blazers. This team has been ravaged by injury after injury. They have fallen well short of their preseason expectations. Yet, the Blazers still find themselves within an arms reach of their seventh consecutive playoff appearance. With Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic set to return from injury soon, the Blazers hope to find their stride at the right time to make the final push to catch the Grizzlies.
According to Tankathon, the Blazers have the fifth easiest remaining schedule in the entire league, a remaining schedule much easier than the eighth-place Grizzlies. The Blazers play 12 of their remaining 23 games at home in the Moda Center where they have a solid 16-13 record. The home heavy schedule could do the Blazers favors down the final stretch.
The Blazers have seen some ups and down recently. Gary Trent Jr. has begun to blossom, C.J. McCollum has stepped up in Damian Lillard’s absence, and Trevor Ariza has shown to be a positive addition. Yet, all of those good signs haven’t resulted in checkmarks in the win column. When push comes to shove, Damian Lillard will be Damian Lillard and we should never count him out. There is no doubt that a healthy Lillard can lead the Blazers into the playoffs, but it will all come down to how the team performs in whole against their easier schedule and how Lillard, Nurkic, and others are able to manage their return from injury.
In the tenth seed stands the imposing New Orleans Pelicans. The surging Pel’s have won five of their last 7 games and are the only western conference team with an easier remaining schedule than the Trail Blazers. Things are setting up nicely for the Pelicans to make a move into the playoffs. In fact, many would consider them to be the favorite.
Through his first 12 games, Pelicans rookie stud, Zion Williamson, has shown us all that he is ready to live up to his hype. Per Justin Kubatko, “Zion Williamson is the first player to average at least 20 points per game while shooting 55 percent or better from the field through his first 12 NBA games since Magic Johnson in 1979-1980.”
Alongside first-time NBA All-Star Brandon Ingram and former All-Star Jrue Holiday, Zion Williamson’s emergence to the scene could be all it takes to keep the Pelicans hot and march them into the eighth seed for a likely matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers and former Pelican Anthony Davis. For the Pelicans, the key to clinching a playoff birth will come from simply maintaining their momentum through their final twenty-four games.
Lastly, the Spurs, Suns, and Kings remain within shouting distance of the playoffs. However, their odds of a playoff birth is incredibly unlikely. As Rip City Project’s own Ryan Mandel pointed out, FiveThirtyEight gives the Trail Blazers a 15 percent chance of sneaking into the postseason. The Pelicans have a 68 percent chance, the Grizzlies have a 6 percent chance, and the remaining 11 perfect is a combination of the Kings, Spurs, and Suns.
The final push for the playoffs is going to be an exciting battle. The Pelicans seemed primed to take it away from the rest of the competition. However, if the Trail Blazers take care of business they will control their own destiny in their quest for the eighth seed. Regardless of fandom and Blazers’ bias, the race for eighth seed is going to be fun to watch.