I wanted to have a quick look at the Portland Trail Blazers from an analytical perspective before Carmelo Anthony is introduced into the mix.
Primarily, I wanted to better understand how impactful players have been to this Portland Trail Blazers team. It is obvious to the casual fan who the best players are – I wanted to verify that. I also wanted to investigate what combination of players (lineup) has been the most beneficial to the team.
On-Court/Off-Court NetRating represents the team’s performance with the player on the court versus on the bench (off-court) per 100 possessions. Being able to measure how a team plays with and without a player allows us to get a “pretty good sense of how well that player is fitting in with the roster”.
After 14 games, below are the Portland Trail Blazers’ OnCt/OFfCt NetRatings.
Damian Lillard: +19.57
Zach Collins: +17.59
CJ McCollum: +16.8
Skal Labissiere: +4.13
Hassan Whiteside: +3.22
Rodney Hood: +2.61
Mario Hezonja: +1.17
Nassir Little: -0.4
Kent Bazemore: -8.5
Anfernee Simons:-13.43
Anthony Tolliver: -13.48
It isn’t surprising to find out that the Blazers are a lot better with him on the court. In fact, you can feel all of Portland collectively clench when Lillard heads to the bench. Dame leads the league in playing time with 38.3 mpg. He has overextended himself to try and keep Portland competitive.
I am not surprised that Zach Collins and CJ also seem to be impactful on the court for this team. Collins’ injury has been a huge loss for the Blazers.
It is surprising to see Anfernee with such a negative rating. However, it is understandable considering he faces a daunting task every night in leading a weak bench core when Dame and CJ have to rest.
Tolliver has been the most detrimental when on the court – which matches what I have seen from him. After watching Skal the last few games, I am more inclined to see more of him rather than Tolliver. He appears to be gaining more confidence with every game.
Bazemore hasn’t been the best version of him. There have been plenty of rumours surrounding his expiring contract being a prime candidate for any trades the team wants to make. He has been prominent on the defensive end – however, on offense he hasn’t found any rhythm and is simply forcing it.
If he doesn’t carve out a role with this squad soon he will undoubtedly be used as a trading chip. Bazemore needs to keep it simple. Last night against the Rockets, for example, he missed an easy pass to Skal Labissiere.
With so many new faces and injury woes, the Blazers are still figuring out their rotations. Below, are the best and worst line-ups in terms of NetRating per 100 possessions.
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Looking at the lineups. I don’t think I feel comfortable making any recommendations on what lineup the Blazers should prominently use. The Blazers don’t have any concrete rotations. They are still figuring things out – a perfect representation of their state of disarray.
It has to be considered that the amount of travel to start the season has been brutal. 13 on the road during the first 18 games to start the season was always going to cause trouble. The current record of 5-9 is more than just a bad start. It is disastrous for a team that was looking to build upon their Western Conference appearance from last season.
It’s still very early in the season. Terry Stotts has demonstrated in the past that he is able to figure out a way to lead this Blazers’ team to the playoffs.
I’ll revisit the OnCt/OffCt rating and lineups later again this year. I hope the Blazers figure it out by then and I can write an article that celebrates what worked out for them.
Notes:
- OnCt/OffCt NetRating = On-Court NetRtg – Off-Court NetRtg.
- Players that played less than 10% of the team’s overall minutes thus far were excluded.
- Lineups with under a total of 14 mins of playing time excluded.
- The findings above were based on data available from PBP Stats.