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Did the Portland Trail Blazers get better or worse this summer?

By Austin Carroll

PORTLAND, OR - OCTOBER 13: Jusuf Nurkic #27 and Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers react during the preseason game against the Maccabi Haifa on October 13, 2017 at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images)
PORTLAND, OR - OCTOBER 13: Jusuf Nurkic #27 and Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers react during the preseason game against the Maccabi Haifa on October 13, 2017 at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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It’s difficult gauging how good the Portland Trail Blazers are now after making so many offseason changes. Here’s what the advanced stats have to say.

Making sense of all the Portland Trail Blazers‘ transactions this summer seems to be a fools task. Which is exactly why the fools at Rip City Project are here to provide a little insight on this offseason and what it could mean for the team moving forward.

To provide context to the discussion, we will be using the advanced statistic Value over Replacement Player (VoRP). VoRP was a statistic designed to improve upon the widely accepted Box Plus/Minus (BPM) in a way that calculates the net points a player generates for his team while also accounting for differences in play time in a way that BPM does not.

Notable Additions (VoRP)

Notable Losses (VoRP)

However, these numbers don’t exactly tell the whole story. While no advanced stat is perfect, VoRP does a great job estimating the difference a player makes on the court… relative to his own teammates. Much in the same way a player on a tanking team will post a negative Box Plus/Minus due to blowout losses, VoRP can also be negatively affected by a tanking team.

It just so happens that Portland’s band of reclamation projects all come from teams that missed the playoffs last year. While the initial exchange of players above may have looked quite lopsided, more context can be provided by looking at their respective careers instead of a single season sample size.

The new additions have a collective career average of 1.34 VoRP (3.6 wins over replacement), while the players Portland lost have a combined average of 2.53 VoRP (6.8 wins over replacement). While the Blazers still lost more than they gained, it’s clear to see the margin wasn’t quite as large as initially assumed and that the old cast probably benefitted from playing next to Damian Lillard and co.

Instead, the Portland Trail Blazers will depend on an improvement from the young core to see a noticeable improvement on the court. Between expected improvements from Zach Collins, Anfernee Simons, Gary Trent Jr., the potential for a breakout season from Skal Labissiere, and the newly acquired Nassir Little, there is huge potential for internal growth in the organization.

For reference, Lillard posted a 5.4 VoRP last season. If Simons can even match just 20 percent of Lillard’s on court production, that would automatically make up for gap between last year’s losses and this season’s new additions. Any extra production from the other young guns is just icing on the cake.

It’s not unreasonable at all to think that introducing so many new players into the rotation and giving Collins starter minutes will account for at least an additional three wins.

Next. Could Lillard beat his Monstar counterpart from "Space Jam"?. dark

Which means despite all of Las Vegas’ attempts to undercut this Blazers team that experienced a lot of internal change this summer, expect Portland to return back better than ever heading into next season.