Analyzing Potential Playoff Matchups for the Portland Trail Blazers
By Jakob Ashlin
Houston Rockets
First, let’s get one thing clear. This is not the same Houston Rockets team from last year. The addition of Chris Paul and the defensive prowess of Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, and Luc Mbah a Moute launched the Rockets into title contention.
Although the focus has been on the losses of Ariza and Mbah a Moute and the continued dominance of James Harden, Paul has quietly been the x-factor. He is on pace for career-lows in points and field goal percentage and is also set to post his lowest assist average and three-point percentage since his rookie season.
In fact, Paul’s decline is worse than it appears. His field goal percentage of 41.9% is only 329th in the league among players who have played in at least 30 games. The Rockets were able to rely on Paul to be their second superstar in the playoffs last year as he averaged 21.1 points per game on 45.9% shooting. For the Rockets to be dangerous in the playoffs, they need Paul to play at a superstar level and that seems highly unlikely.
Harden has been an outstanding regular season performer and is leading the Rockets to regular season success again this season. Nevertheless, his playoff performance cannot be ignored. Harden has posted field goal percentages of 41.0%, 41.3%, and 41.0% in the playoffs across his last three seasons. Harden is also a career 32.6% three-point shooter in the playoffs including his 29.9% mark last season.
The Blazers have actually had success this season against the Rockets, as well. They have won two out of three games including a 19 point victory on October 30th. In addition, Paul averaged 14 points on 25.8% shooting across two games against the Blazers this season. The Blazers last faced the Rockets on January 5th, which means that the Blazers played well against the Rockets before they even added Rodney Hood and Enes Kanter.
Simply put, facing the Rockets could be a much more favorable outcome than it appears to be on the surface.