The Portland Trail Blazers will need to win on the road to close out the rest of their season.
Although the Portland Trail Blazers sit nicely at fourth in the Western Conference standings (33-23), this positioning is precarious. Only 11 games separate the first placed Golden State Warriors and the eighth placed Sacramento Kings. While Portland would technically hold a homecourt advantage over the Houston Rockets if the postseason began today, only five games separate them from LeBron James’s tenth placed Los Angeles Lakers.
Ten teams in the Western Conference are vying for a crucial spot in the playoff race. Though Portland has a good chance at entering the postseason, they will need a strong close to the rest of their season to keep their homecourt advantage and play against a favorable opponent.
Thus far, out of the top ten Western Conference teams, the Blazers have played the least amount of road games. Their 25 (10-15) nearly matches the Kings’ 26 (11-15), and they look lesser compared to the LA Clippers’ 31 (16-15). Portland’s .400 winning percentage in away games ranks ninth out of these ten teams, only besting the San Antonio Spurs’s .366.
Each team plays 41 home games and 41 road games. Right now, the Blazers have done a lot of their winning on at home, going 23-8 in their 31 matches at the Moda Center. To maintain their place in the standings, the Blazers will need to continue their home dominance through their last 10 there and transfer this energy into the remaining 16 road games.
The Blazers score 7.3 points more at home than away and give out 24.0 assists per game versus just 21.3. Conversely, Portlands’ opponents score 5.3 more points when playing a visiting Rip City club and dish out 24.4 assists per game rather than 21.9.
This years’ second-unit should hold some of the blame in these splits. Oftentimes, the five-man bench platoon leads to high-energy stints at home and scary stagnation on the road. Two of Portland’s worst games this year came when the five-man group dropped big first quarter leads in back-to-back Houston and Memphis road losses.
As recently as February 10, we saw the Blazers open up a big lead against the Mavericks only to go ice cold in Dallas. The club scored just nine points in the fourth quarter to lose, 101-102.
These types of collapses are just as possible at home, but they’re far less likely.
If the Blazers continued winning at the same clip, they will go onto win roughly seven of their remaining 10 home games and six of their remaining 16 away games. Therefore, they should finish at around 46 wins on the year.
Last year, this mark would’ve netted Portland a ninth seed.
With the remaining road games, the Blazers have the opportunity to prove themselves as more legitimate playoff contenders – a group that can win without hometown support and comfort, a vital skill in the postseason.
The Blazers have a big test tonight against the first-seeded Warriors at home.