Portland Trail Blazers: Rethinking CJ McCollum’s Slump

Throughout much of the season, Portland Trail Blazers fans have complained that CJ McCollum is having a “down year.” Here’s the thing: he is playing just as well as before.

Admittedly, I’m late to the party of CJ McCollum truthers – those who don’t buy that the Portland Trail Blazers guard is experiencing a slump. Up until very recently (a few hours ago), I was a big believer in this notion that McCollum had lost something this season.

As I’ve dug further into it, I’m worried that the truth was in front of my face the whole time.

On January 12, there was Dave Deckard’s Blazer’s Edge article detailing the fact that McCollum had actually been playing well. Title: “Trail Blazers Mid-Season Guard Review. CJ McCollum is Not in a Slump.” Not exactly coded.

Being the big “McCollum is having one of his worst seasons since becoming a full-time starter” person I was, somehow I missed this. Maybe I wanted to go on living a lie.

But it wasn’t hard to believe my initial feeling. He came out of the gate slow this year. Lackluster performances against the Washington Wizards (13 points, 5-for-25 shooting) and New Orleans Pelicans (8 points, 2-for-8 shooting) helped formulate my perspective early on. I found myself harping on the way he attacked mismatches on the switch, regularly opting for a pull-up three rather than finding a way to the rim.

I wanted to confirm what I thought I saw. And sure enough, he was shooting a career-low from beyond the arc  (.341) and, according to NBA.com, is shooting only .313 on pull-ups from this range. This is a drop from last year, when he was the Blazers’ best pull-up three-point shooter (.372). I believed that what I had been harping on was bearing itself out in the numbers.

McCollum was shooting more inefficiently than ever before while dishing out fewer assists and rebounding less consistently. He was doing his most important job, scoring, worse than before and becoming less rounded – the Blazers had to be worried.

I had this confirmed when I went into advanced metrics. For the team, he ranked fourth in win-shares and sixth in value over replacement player (VORP). For someone touted as the second best player on the team, these numbers were an indictment on his year to me.

And from there, I went on writing and speaking like it was a given that CJ McCollum had been having his his worst year since becoming part of the Rip City backcourt tandem.