What happened?
I don’t exactly know. But there are a few keys that are becoming clear:
First and foremost, Zach Collins has not been good lately. Over the last month, he has averaged 4.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and .7 rebounds. He has hit only 26.1% of his three-pointers and blocked only .7 shots per game. He is certainly not the type of rim-protecting floor-stretcher that he was projecting to be earlier this year.
Ultimately, he’s just been “blah.” At best, he’s blended into the rotation. At worst, he’s been blocked at the rim or on his shots, fouled like crazy, and missed his open shots. In a recent Athletic article, he told Jason Quick (subscription required):
"“I don’t know what’s going on. S***’s just not going my way right now… I have some moments where I bounce back into it, but as a while, I don’t think I’ve been playing very well. Every game I come into it confident, I come in thinking that I’m going to turn it around. It hasn’t happened yet, but all I can do is keep working.”"
Although his attitude is commendable, Collins’s production has been mostly anything but. At only 21-years-old, there is absolutely no reason to give up on him, but there is reason to be frustrated by his lack of improvement.
Sticking with the big men, Meyers Leonard has gone from having one of his best seasons to again being a disappointment. However, his problems may be more hidden than Collins’s.
One thing I’ve noticed is Leonard’s hesitation in shooting the three-ball. Oftentimes, you’ll see someone kicking out a pass to him only for him to give a weak pump-fake and then put the ball on the floor to pass to someone and restart the offense all over again.
For someone who is shooting 46.7% and has a history of throwing up flame balls, you’d think he’d be more aggressive from beyond the arc. But no, this season he is shooting only 1.8 attempts per game. Previously, this has been as high as 2.9 or 3.7.
I want to see Leonard hitting triples in the close-out defenders’ face. Forcing defenses to take him seriously when Lillard and McCollum require space to operate.
Against the Memphis Grizzlies, Caleb Swanigan had a respectable showing. He went hard against Marc Gasol and called for the ball whenever he found an advantage. He looked more aggressive and competent than either Collins or Leonard, giving the Blazers a lift to get back into the game. Maybe he’ll find a couple more minutes here and there if the other guys can’t get back on track.
Seth Curry was brought in to be a constant threat from deep and off the dribble whenever Lillard or McCollum got doubled. But so far, he has looked more like a fringe rotational player than a guy who could help make a difference in a playoff series.
Nik Stauskas has played some of the best, most consistent basketball of his career. But he is more of a guy who can win you a game with an occasional bout of shooting (his 24 points on opening night) rather than a player who will factor into a team’s core. While Stauskas’s streakiness hasn’t helped the team, he has ultimately been a productive player for Portland.
And lastly, there’s Evan Turner. I touted him as the second-unit’s glue a month ago, and I think that still stands. However, he’s just been less sticky than before. Rather than run the second-unit to perfection, I’ve noticed moments where he is forcing his shot and fading into the background.
Of course, I can’t fully blame him for this. Lillard and McCollum look to be taking more one-on-one opportunities than they were before, and Turner may be feeling the pressure to get his when he gets the chance.
Still, Turner needs to get back to being conservative with his shot and getting others involved whenever he is on the floor.