Rip City Project mail: Should the Portland Trail Blazers go after Trevor Ariza?

One of Rip City Project’s readers recently sent us in an intriguing idea: Should the Portland Trail Blazers trade Maurice Harkless for Trevor Ariza?

If there is any bright side to all the angst surrounding the Portland Trail Blazers’ skid these past few weeks, it’s that it can breed some interesting trade scenarios to better the team. One such scenario was posed by Rip City Project reader, Sean.

In a message to us, he wrote:

"“Trade Idea for Trevor Ariza… Maurice Harkless, Jake Layman (use the trade exception from the Vonleh deal). This does not get us under the luxury tax line, obviously but it settles a hot button minutes dispute, provides us with a player that actually DOES all of the things we expected Moe to do, adds a veteran winner to the locker room, removes one player from our bloated roster, gets money off the books next year, and provides a better bench rotation. It may even provide minutes for Simons and Trent. If not Layman, then maybe Baldwin? What do you guys think? This seems like it has Olshey written all over it. I am a huge fan of the site and the writing. Keep up the great work!”"

First and foremost: thank you for your support, Sean! It truly means the world to us.

Now, before diving into the meat of the trade (Harkless for Ariza), I want to mention that I think Wade Baldwin IV works much better for both teams as the third guy in the deal than Jake Layman. This is simply because Layman has already shown he can play quality minutes for the Blazers – as a starter nonetheless – and the Phoenix Suns desperately need someone on the roster listed as a point guard.

Like Dave Favale of Bleacher Report said when he pondered a similar deal:

"Wade Baldwin most likely won’t turn into a big-picture piece, but he’s someone else for the Suns to roll out at point guard. And the $3.6 million they save as part of this is likely more than Ariza would give back in a buyout."

Plus, the Blazers just drafted Anfernee Simons. If they desperately need to slot in another guard due to injury, I feel it may be more worthwhile to give him some minutes rather than Baldwin. And like you say, you’re interested in seeing more of him and Gary Trent Jr.

As for the main part of the deal, it seems you’re posing that the Blazers need a 3-and-D wing and that Maurice Harkless just isn’t that guy. Trevor Ariza could be.

Although it’s hard to fairly asses Harkless’s season so far with his knee injury limiting his appearances, minutes, and (hopefully) performance, I do think he’s ultimately been miscast in Portland’s rotation.

No doubt, he is a solid defender who can make cuts to the basket and attack the rim. But his talents may be wasted as a guy who lurks on the corners and waits for a kick-out pass from Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum. At least, that’s the type of role he seems to be playing so far this season in his 12 games with the team.

His career-high 41.5% shooting from deep last year looks pretty, but I think it’s more of a mirage than a promise of what’s to come – a mirage that I myself believed this offseason. This shooting percentage really only came from him shooting more efficiently, rather than actually better. He made only .8 threes per game on two attempts. This isn’t all that spectacular, especially when you remember that he made .9 threes on 2.5 attempts two years ago.

In fact, Harkless has never averaged one three per game throughout his career. While hitting the few attempts he puts up is certainly a good thing, his low volume does not force opposing defenses to care about him that much. If you’re an opponent, you’re fine giving up one or two three-pointers to Harkless (who is currently shooting 28.6% from there this season).

At 33-years-old, I’m not sure how much better of a defender Ariza would be than Harkless is, but I don’t think you’re sacrificing much, if anything, on that side of the ball in this kind of swap. Instead, what I think we should all be focusing on is how much better of a three-point shooter is Ariza, and, even if he is better, will Lillard and McCollum find him for more than two attempts per game.

As far as the veteran leadership aspect goes, I think that point is moot when you’re talking about a locker room that already has Lillard. For sure, Ariza is a high-character player who’s played on big stages, but I think when times get tough, the team wil be looking more towards Dame and CJ than they would a newcomer like Ariza who may be gone by season’s end.

So, how much better of a shooter is Ariza? A lot. And from his tenure with the Houston Rockets, it’s obvious that he’s comfortable playing the type of waiting-in-the-wings role that Harkless oftentimes does.

He is a career 35.3% shooter from deep and, with Houston, he never averaged less than 6.2 three-point attempts per game. On catch-and-shoot opportunities last year, he shot 39.8% from deep and had an effective field goal percentage of 59.3%. While these aren’t elite numbers league-wide, they were good enough to make him one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams’ best three-point shooters.

He epitomized what a 3-and-D guy should be when playing alongside star guards.

However, Portland’s version of James Harden and Chris Paul are not the same type of passers. While I think Dame could make use of a new toy in Ariza, I worry how often McCollum would find him – after all, Head Coach Terry Stotts elected to take him out of that backup point guard role in favor of Evan Turner this season.

Still, I’ll go ahead and say I think it’s worth a shot.

If the Blazers want their starting small forward to be a 3-and-D while they ride out Dame and CJ’s prime, then they’ve got to start looking for that production outside of Moe Harkless. This isn’t to say that Harkless can’t be helpful in a different context – or that he can’t even prove us wrong once he finds more minutes. But with the team in their current situation, they should be doing all they can to find a better fit alongside their two best players.

It’s a tinker-y move, one that could potentially have very little effect, but I’m desperate enough to see how the Blazers could do with a more consistent, higher-volume shooter on the wing. And because I don’t think Harkless will ever acquiesce to Ariza’s level in this regard, it’s probably worth it to get him off the books a year early to bring on a proven vet.

Thanks again for the question!