At the 20 game mark of the season, let’s break down the Portland Trail Blazers turbulent start.
The Portland Trail Blazers returned home after finishing up one of the more brutal road trips in recent memory: a trip that consisted of six games in four different time zones over the span of nine days. The Blazers dropped four games, three of them by more than twenty. Then they followed all that up by blowing a double-digit halftime lead in a much anticipated return home. Let’s take a deep breath and see whats going on. Let’s dig deeper.
We are officially at the 20 game mark of the season. Meaning, we are finally at the point of the season where we can start to differentiate the contenders from the pretenders. For reference, the teams that finished in the top nine of the Western Conference at the end of the season were in the top nine through 20 games last season.
The Blazers are 12-8 twenty games into this season; they were 12-8 twenty games into last season. The West may be deeper top to bottom this year, but all indications suggest that the Blazers are on a similar trajectory to last season.
To go even further in understanding this team’s play so far, I removed the highest 10% and lowest 10% of points scored in a game and points allowed in a game, to get a better sense of how consistent the Blazers have been without these “outlier” performances.
By doing this we actually see that the Blazers points per game decreases to 111. 5 (at 112.7 for the season), and their points allowed per game actually increases to 112.1 (at 110.7 for the season). This indicates that the Blazers have in fact have had more favorable outlier games than non-favorable, and thus the Blazer’s may actually not be as good as their record suggests.
Before everyone panics. . . let’s remember this. The Blazers will have PLENTY of opportunities to solidify itself as a top team in the West.
The Blazers may not go on a 13 game winning streak similar to last year, but in all likelihood, they will go through a similar hot streak at the end of January to the middle of February. Starting on January 26th, the Blazers play 4 home games in 12 days (A lot of time for needed rest), and then go on the road for two games before the all-star break. Coupled with a relatively easy stretch before the 4 homes games in 12 days (Cavs and Pelicans at home, Jazz, Thunder, and Suns on the road), there’s a fairly conceivable reality where the Blazers enter the all-star break on a 6-11 game-winning streak.
A winning streak of this magnitude and a strong second half surge that we Blazers fans have come to expect could easily catapult this team back near the top of the standings. The West is loaded with quality teams, but only one team still looks to be championship worthy at this juncture of the season (Yes, still the Warriors). The Blazers will still make the playoffs, but there needs to be more consistently dominant play from this team to even think they can compete with the Warriors.