Portland Trail Blazers: The Collins-Nurkic tandem is becoming elite

Utilizing a big lineup with Zach Collins at the four and Jusuf Nurkic at the five may be the Portland Trail Blazers best means to a deep playoff run come April and May. 

In today’s small-ball league, most teams are playing traditional three-men at the four position to increase their spacing and allow for constant switching on defense. While teams have found success in this approach, the Portland Trail Blazers may have struck gold on going in the opposite direction: playing big.

The Trail Blazers have an elite backcourt (don’t think that’s breaking news to anyone), but what they do possess in skill, they lack in height. Other talented backcourts like the Warriors and the Rockets of last season were able to relieve their backcourts by adding three and D players around them.

The Trail Blazers have not been able to acquire a true three and D player to play alongside the Damian Lillard-CJ McCollum tandem. They have instead acquired versatile and skilled big men who can switch out onto the perimeter, protect the rim, extend the floor, and dominate the glass.

The concern for most teams in having a big play the four is the liability they become defensively when matching up against the quicker, perimeter-oriented fours in today’s league. Luckily for the Blazers, Zach Collins is no liability in guarding on the perimeter. When contesting threes, players are only shooting 25.7 percent against Collins, a 7.4% increase from what their expected 3FG% would be (per NBA.com).

At the same time, both Collins and Jusuf Nurkic have become forces at defending the rim. Collins is allowing players to only shoot 49.2% at the rim (-10.5% decrease from what their expected FG% at the rim would be), while Nurkic is allowing 54.3% shooting at the rim (-8.3 decrease from what their expected FG% at the rim would be).

Nurkic and Collins allow the Trail Blazers to play an elite defense when on the floor together, and the advantage they bring on offense is just as great. They can space the floor when needed. Collins is shooting a blazing 40% from three on 2.1 attempts to start this season, while Nurkic is shooting 62.5% from 16 feet to the three point line on .67 attempts per game (small sample size, but Nurk has shown a good stroke from outside).

With teams continuing to play small, Nurkic and Collins will also have a tremendous opportunity to dominate on the glass. The Blazers as a team are still second in the league in rebounding (51.9 per game), and, perhaps more importantly, they are also second in rebound chance percentage, at 72.3% (number of rebounds/number of rebound opportunities). This efficiency for rebounding can be attributed to the size advantage the Blazers have at most times, and will only go up the more they utilize a lineup with Collins and Nurkic.

Lillard and McCollum may be the team’s best players, but if the Blazer’s are going to differentiate themselves from just another team with great guards to a true playoff (dare I say championship) contender, Nurkic and Collins must continue to see action together on the floor.