3 Spooky Speculations about the Portland Trail Blazers

Is Collins already the better option over Nurkic?

I chose the word “option” rather than “player” very carefully.

But I do know that the Blazers seem to trust Collins more down the stretch than Jusuf Nurkic. Yes, this is just as much a function of matchup as it is skillset, but couldn’t you make the same argument for the starting spot too?

Collins is both the more mobile and rangier center of the two. He can guard faster big men who can shoot better than Nurkic and shoot the three and midrange shot more consistently.

However, Nurkic is usually touted as the better rim protector and inside scorer. But to those things, I pose a question. To the first: Is he really? And to the second: Couldn’t that be better utilized with the second-unit?

So, is he really a better rim-protector? Nurkic has looked solid this season down low, especially when the Blazers’ drop-big defense works to perfection against bad pull-up teams (like the Jazz in preseason) or those allergic to midrange shots (the Rockets). His length and size allows him to wreak havoc against guards who think they’re getting a shot at the hoop.

Collins has looked good as well, finding good opportunities to provide help and standing strong to swat away shots.

Advanced metrics, in competition with the eye test, say that Collins has performed much better as a rim-protecting center.

Right now, Collins is dropping opponents’ shot percentages within six feet of the rim by 9.2 percent. Meanwhile, opponents shooting over Nurkic are actually shooting 3.8 percentage points better.

The raw numbers also point in Collins’s favor. His two blocks per game trumps Nurk’s .9.

And to the inside scoring point: yes, Nurkic is better. But, how much does that type of skill matter for the starting lineup?

Why couldn’t Nurkic be placed in a second-unit with Evan Turner, Seth Curry, Nik Stauskas, and Maurice Harkless? The spacing of Curry and Stauskas could give him room to operate in the post and he’d be working against second-string centers.

I’m thinking along the lines of what the Toronto Raptors are doing with Jonas Valanciunas and Serge Ibaka.

Collins can theoretically match Ibaka’s outside shooting and blocking ability to both space the offense and protect the rim on defense. Nurkic and Valanciunas only do the latter of these things.

I’m only speculating here. But who knows, maybe Collins will be in the starting lineup before season’s end.

Stay tuned on the Blazers to learn more about the haunted turnovers, the alien Stauskas, and Collins’s progression. They play their next game on November 1 at 7:30 P.S.T.