Portland Trail Blazers: Is a Zach Collins breakout looming?

Collins as a rim protector

At the very least, Collins should see an increase in minutes and defensive production as he will be relied on to be a rim protector whenever Jusuf Nurkic rests.

Although Collins only averaged .5 blocks last season, he showed more than enough potential on the defensive end to warrant Olshey’s trust. He defended 35.9 percent of opponents’ shots that came within six feet while he was on the floor. And more importantly, he dropped opposing players’ field goal percentages in this range by 13.1 percent – the best on the team among players who played more than five games.

In NBA Summer League, Collins allowed only .227 points per possession as a primary defender. This was the best number among 450 players.

As Collins continues to put on weight and age further past his teenaged years, these staunch defensive numbers could improve and translate to the NBA. As he continues to learn the rhythm of the game, he could quickly understand the Blazers defensive rotations and use his length to become a solid help defender.

If his strength and understanding progresses to a certain point by the beginning of next year, we could see him replacing Ed Davis’s ability as a secondary rim protector without any issues. And his offensive versatility could allow him to play alongside Nurkic for an ultra-long, ultra-defensive look.

He must improve on the glass

Last year, Collins averaged only 7.6 boards per game – per 36 minutes. Usually, quality bigs want this number hovering around the 10-ish range. For a seven-footer especially, it seems odd that he only grabbed 3.3 rebounds per game in his 15.8 minutes of play.

Collins has shown an ability to box out, so maybe others are grabbing the rebounds that he’s earned. But still, a number below four is slightly troublesome.

Of course, his offensive rebounds is likely below one per game because he was used more as a shooter last year, hovering around the elbow and three-point arc (he shot nearly two three-balls per game), so he was further from the basket to collect misses. This did him no favors since he lacks the explosiveness to dive in on the offensive glass.

Without Ed Davis, though, Collins will probably play a little more around the restricted area, so there’s a chance we see this number increase just due to his role change.

And on defense, we should expect his production to increase as he adds weight, becomes more assertive, and better understands the faster-paced game.

If Collins comes into next year playing more minutes at the center and down low, and his rebounding numbers increase, this means he is developing an NBA body and more aggressiveness in the paint. If his numbers remain lackluster, this could point to his being bullied down low on the boards.

While offense can be streaky, his rebound production will be a solid way to track Collins’s improvements both physically and mentally.

If he comes out the gate rebounding like a banshee, then I say prepare yourself for a breakout.