Which team is the Blazers biggest rival next season?

The Blazers will be fighting with several other Western Conference teams for a playoff spot next season. Which of the teams in that battle for position will emerge as Portland’s rival?

There are three groups that each Western Conference team can be separated into. The first group, the “shoe-ins,” consists of the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets. The second group, the “challengers”, consists of nearly every other team trying to earn a playoff spot. And finally, the third group, deemed the “lottos,” consists of the three organizations already focused on the 2019 draft.

As long as Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are on the roster and the West stays packed with strong rosters, the Blazers fit into the challengers group. Even more teams joined the group this offseason behind marquee signings, most notably the Los Angeles Lakers. Portland certainly won’t be able to drop four of its last five and maintain the three seed this year.

As the 2018-2019 season progresses, the challengers group will split into subgroups, birthing specific two-team rivalries. The question is, who will be the Blazers’ rival?

Each team within this group was evaluated on a few criteria:

• Head-to-head record versus current iteration of team
• Noteworthy player matchups
• Off-court beef (any moments away from actual game play that may have increased tensions between the teams)
• ESPN projections
• Number of matchups next season

Denver Nuggets

• Head-to-head record: Nuggets 3 – 1 Blazers
• Noteworthy matchup: Nikola Jokic vs. Jusuf Nurkic
• Off-court beef: Nurkic always tries to have his best game of the season against Denver after they relegated him to backup and then traded him in 2016.
• ESPN projection: No. 5 in West
• 4 matchups (2 in final week of season) in 2018-2019

The Nuggets started 2017-2018 with a fresh team; Paul Millsap was the marquee addition, plus Gary Harris and Jamal Murray had developed a lot from the previous season.

Denver and Portland only squared off twice with healthy rosters and the series was split. (Millsap missed two matchups, Lillard missed one.) Nonetheless, the Nuggets came out on top with a 3-1 season series victory only to miss the playoffs by a single game.

A bonus for this potential rivalry is Nurkic’s history with Denver. Upon the arrival and improvement of Jokic, Nurkic found himself riding the bench and experiencing attitude issues. The Nuggets swiftly shipped him to the Pacific Northwest only to have the big man post career numbers in his return games out of spite.

Minnesota Timberwolves

• Head-to-head record: T-Wolves 2 – 2 Blazers
• Noteworthy matchup: n/a
• Off-court beef: Jimmy Butler started a fight in Portland in Nov. 2015, but his target was Mason Plumlee who’s now gone.
• ESPN projection: No. 8 in West
• 4 matchups

ESPN projects Minnesota to grab the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs like they did last year. ESPN also projects the Blazers to fall to No. 10, meaning the Timberwolves stole the last spot from them by two games in this scenario.

Besides that, these teams don’t have anything to create a rivalry. They split the season series in 2017-2018 despite Minnesota acquiring Butler and Jeff Teague in the offseason, plus there’s no good player matchups between the rosters. The Timberwolves outsize the Blazers at nearly every position, but seem unable to capitalize on it. They only outscored Portland in the paint by 22 points through all four matchups and failed to outrebound them as well.

The only remote beef came in Nov. 2015 when Plumlee trucked Butler on a screen, encouraging them to get in each other’s faces and act tough. Nothing came from the fight, and Plumlee took off to Denver shortly after.

Utah Jazz

• Head-to-head record: Jazz 2 – 2 Blazers
• Noteworthy matchup: Damian Lillard vs. Donovan Mitchell
• Off-court beef: Donovan Mitchell keeps wearing Dame’s shoes – no, there’s no actual beef between the teams.
• ESPN projection: No. 3 in West
• 4 matchups (Christmas Day game) in 2018-2019

The Jazz and Blazers faced off in game No. 82 last season, a game with serious playoff implications. Lillard and company surprisingly came out on top (surprising because they had dropped the previous four) and earned home court advantage.

This season, ESPN doesn’t project a six-win gap between the teams with Utah at No. 3 and Portland at No. 10. If that’s the case, then this rivalry can be thrown away because the Blazers will be fighting with other squads at the bottom of the playoff bracket.

However, the Blazers and Jazz face off on Christmas Day, meaning the NBA schedulers recognize the competition between the two.

Los Angeles Lakers

• Head-to-head record: n/a (have calculate in LeBron’s impact)
• Noteworthy matchup: Damian Lillard vs. Lonzo Ball
• Off-court beef: Major NBA accounts won’t stop showing LeBron James‘ dunk over Nurkic last year. Plus, #BeatLA and BeatLA merchandise is a thing in Portland.
• ESPN projection: No. 6 in West
• 4 matchups (opening night, three in first month) in 2018-2019

The Los Angeles Lakers signed LeBron to a four-year deal, instantly putting them in playoff contention. The rest of Magic Johnson’s signings? Not sure exactly. Either way, the Blazers now have its hands full with yet another strong squad in the West.

Because Portland has won the last 15 head-to-head matchups, there hasn’t been a rivalry in several years. But almost every NBA fan outside of Los Angeles and the plentiful Kobe stans hates the Lakers, hence the #BeatLA posters and merchandise at the Moda Center.

This shared hatred across the league, plus three matchups in the first month of next season and an opening night face off on national TV, gives the Lakers – Blazers rivalry real potential.

Memphis Grizzlies

• Head-to-head record: Grizzlies 2 – 2 Blazers
• Noteworthy matchup: Mike Conley vs. Damian Lillard
• Off-court beef: CJ McCollum broke Mike Conley’s face in the first round of the 2015 playoffs and broke Chandler Parsons Twitter two years later.
• ESPN projection: No. 12 in West
• 4 matchups in 2018-2019

After a Conley injury and head coach firing, Memphis became one of the premier tanking teams in the league. Their point guard is once again healthy and the roster has an additional top-five rookie to show for the wretched 2017-2018 campaign.

The Grizzlies are therefore back in playoff contention and match up very similarly with the Blazers as far as positional strengths. However, ESPN doesn’t think the Grizzlies can keep up with the rest of the West and only project them to win 33 games. If Memphis does drop off that much despite a healthy lineup, they won’t be in Portland’s radar for a rivalry to develop.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Head-to-head record: Thunder 0 – 4 Blazers
• Noteworthy matchup: Russell Westbrook vs. Damian Lillard
• Off-court beef: Westbrook once kicked a ball away from Lillard when he tried to grab it. Westbrook also called out Lillard for complaining his way to the All-Star team, only to do the same thing for Paul George.
• ESPN projection: No. 4 in West
• 4 matchups (2, potentially 3, nationally televised) in 2018-2019

Despite a “much improved” roster, the Thunder couldn’t beat the Blazers in any of their four matchups, including one without Lillard playing. If OKC can’t even defeat a Lillard-less Portland team, then they can’t be considered a rival.

Still, there is some beef between the two star point guards, especially after the 2018 All-Star game. Westbrook ironically complained about Lillard complaining his way to the All-Star team, of course without directly mentioning his name, and therefore got his teammate Paul George a spot. The guards generally play each other tough, but will do so with even more intensity now.

New Orleans Pelicans

• Head-to-head record: Pelicans 2 – 2 Blazers
• Noteworthy matchup: All five Pelicans starters vs. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum
• Off-court beef: There’s no beef between the players, but Pelicans fans are rather cocky after winning a single playoff series.
• ESPN projection: No. 7 in West
• 3 matchups (2 nationally televised) in 2018-2019

“When one door closes, another opens.” Alexander Graham Bell said this quote in reference to the Blazers and Pelicans beef (not actually). Still, it summarizes the fluctuating on- and off-court tensions between the two teams.

Before acquiring DeMarcus Cousins, the Pelicans were a mediocre team and hadn’t played well enough to warrant “rivalry” status with the Blazers. Then, by adding Cousins, New Orleans brought in his and Meyer Leonard‘s pointless yet entertaining in-game spats.

That door closed as Cousins left before any WWE action occurred with Leonard. However, another door opened thanks to a demoralizing first round sweep in last season’s playoffs. Pelicans fans are suddenly as tough as they come on Twitter after their first playoff series victory since 2008 and are constantly harping on Lillard and McCollum.

Aside from the diaries of a salty Blazers fan, the two teams match up very well and always provide nail-biting games. New Orleans made several offseason moves, but still appear to be in Portland’s ballpark at the middle-to-bottom of the West’s postseason standings.

ULTIMATE RIVAL

According to 59 thoughtful Twitter participants, the Denver Nuggets are Portland’s primary rival heading into the 2018-2019 season.

Based on my super complicated evaluation matrix, the two most voted teams in this survey will be the Blazers’ primary rivals.

Nurkic’s petty comeback games, enjoyable player-on-player matchups, and close finishing deficits in the past make every Portland-Denver game a must-watch. Then, a painful playoff series, annoying Twitter fans, and similar positional strengths make games versus the Pelicans entertaining and worth tuning in to.

Both of these teams will likely finish the 2018-2019 season within a few games of the Blazers. Adding a playoff seeding battle down the stretch puts the icing on the cake for these two brewing rivalries.