Will the Blazers change its rotation to accommodate all four new guards?

The Blazers played minimal minutes without either Lillard or McCollum last season. With all the new guard signings, is a rotational change in store?

This summer, the Blazers lost two guards in Shabazz Napier and Pat Connaughton. For Neil Olshey’s new three-point shooting game plan, the team signed four guards to supplement the loss of two (plus Wade Baldwin IV, who’s basically a new signing as well).

The new additions – Anfernee Simons, Gary Trent Jr., Nik Stauskas and Seth Curry – should all absorb some portion of the vacated 38.8 minutes along with Baldwin. But with the minutes of two players being split into five, the rotation may need to free up extra time.

One method to get Portland away from its predictable rotation and provide more minutes to the players with untapped potentials is to stagger Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum less.

Across all of last season, the star backcourt only shared the bench for a total of 254 in-game minutes. In that brief time, various Blazers fives combined to score 101.4 points per 100 possessions for a plus/minus of -3.3.

The 101.4 points is down from Portland’s season average of 106.1 points per 100 possessions. However, it is closer to the team’s overall points per 100 than other teams missing its star backcourt, like the Houston Rockets.

Without James Harden and Chris Paul, the Rockets scored 99.1 points per 100 possessions, compared to 112.2 points with everyone playing.

The Blazers lineup which played the most with Lillard and McCollum out was:

PG: Shabazz Napier | SG: Pat Connaughton | SF: Maurice Harkless | PF: Zach Collins | C: Ed Davis

These five guys endured 146 total possessions in 2017-2018 – they scored 169 points in those 146 opportunities for a cumulative plus/minus of +10.

Three of the five players in that group are on different teams thanks to salary cap issues and a new “game plan” for the upcoming season, though. If Terry Stotts decides to stagger his star guards less, how will the new go-to bench unit look?

To mimic the success of the above five, the Blazers will need to construct a standard lineup (meaning no small ball). Obviously Harkless and Collins will remain in the lineup, but Collins will move to the center position.

Curry will replace Napier at point guard, and either Stauskas or Trent Jr. will replace Connaughton at shooting guard. These swaps present no clear issue in the unit’s ability to score and defend.

Simons and Baldwin should pick up a few of the available minutes as well, keeping Curry around the 16-20 minute mark per game.

Then, at power forward, the Blazers likely opt to deploy Caleb Swanigan (which pushes Collins to the five, as mentioned before).

This lights up the problem of losing Davis. Swanigan doesn’t have the height to control the paint alongside Collins and maintain the duo’s stellar interior defense.

Additionally, he doesn’t have the experience to act as Collins’ mentor. Last season, Davis would point Collins where to go and who to defend on a possession-basis – that option no longer exists with Swanigan filling in. The two second year players might occasionally get in each other’s way as a result.

If he doesn’t fit the bill, then Meyers Leonard will substitute in at center, moving Collins back to power forward.

In my opinion, the more fun, but riskier, option is this lineup:

PG: Seth Curry/Wade Baldwin IV | SG: Nik Stauskas/Gary Trent Jr. | SF: Jake Layman | PF: Maurice Harkless | C: Zach Collins

Layman showed off his offensive capabilities at Summer League as well as unseen confidence from the third year pro. There is no risk involved with giving him a chance, especially because it provides offense and athleticism to a unit that lacks it.

By not staggering Lillard and McCollum as much, the Blazers can play its four new guards more and not sacrifice the bench’s size that was so useful last season.

For this to work, all the new faces must match or outperform their predecessors, which is no easy feat after Napier and Connaughton both had breakout seasons in 2017-2018.