By adding better catch-and-shoot three-point shooters this summer, the Blazers can record more assists and maximize its offense game plan.
The infamous roster flip in the summer of 2015 created a Portland Trail Blazers team with its two best players (by a long shot) at the guard position. Terry Stotts adjusted his offensive game plan accordingly, focusing on creating open opportunities for them with a barrage of screens.
This offense, known as “Fist Motion,” has two screeners that free up their teammates in a variety of ways. Guards on and off the ball maneuver around screens in unpredictable ways to counter a smart defender trying to jump the passing lane.
Despite running an offense designed to generate catch-and-shoot opportunities, the Blazers have consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in assists per game since 2015.
Their 2017-2018 campaign marked rock bottom – the team finished dead last in assists with 19.5 per contest. The next two lowest teams, the Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder, recorded over 21 assists per.
Two factors contribute to the lack of assists in the Fist Motion offense. First is an inability to convert on catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Last season, the Blazers attempted 18.2 catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game, 6.8 of which they converted on.
A C&S three-point percentage of 37.4% placed Portland in the middle of the pack (15 teams better, 14 teams worse). But because they shot average on minimal attempts, they only scored more points on C&S threes than four teams.
The Blazers addressed its lack of outside shooting this offseason by signing Seth Curry and Nik Stauskas. Curry shot 40.6% on C&S threes in 2016-2017, plus the shot type accounted for 30.8% of his total field goal attempts. Stauskas shot 42.6% on C&S threes, which made up 40.9% of his total field goal attempts in 2017-2018.
They can be perceived as an improvement over Shabazz Napier and Pat Connaughton in this sense. Napier shot 44.9% on C&S threes, but took half as many attempts as Curry did. Connaughton, on the other hand, shot significantly worse than Stauskas on C&S threes (34.4%).
The second factor in Portland’s inability to record assists is how the team’s pick-and-roll ball handlers operate.
Damian Lillard engaged in a pick-and-roll on 47.6% of his possessions. Because he is an elite scorer, he focuses on scoring first after running around a screen.
Lillard’s pick-and-roll baskets come from the opponent stepping under the screen and creating an uncontested three-point look, or from the opponent stepping over the screen and opening a lane for Lillard to drive through.
His dynamic offense results in consistent points for the team (1.05 points per possession). However, it doesn’t create many catch-and-shoot three opportunities for his teammates – they aren’t even the second choice on Lillard’s pick-and-rolls.
Perhaps the point guard avoided kicking it out as frequently because of Portland’s mediocre catch-and-shoot percentages. Handing it off to Jusuf Nurkic on the roll was a better option than betting on Al-Farouq Aminu or Evan Turner to knock down a three.
Having better outside shooters will help the Blazers on any of these pick-and-roll outcomes. Defenders must honor Stauskas and Curry’s three-point shooting and not play help defense when Lillard penetrates. If the wing defenders collapse, he finds the two shooters for a higher percentage three-point attempt.
Having options on the perimeter that the pick-and-roll ball handlers are confident in will encourage them to kick it out more. This means increased assist counts for the Blazers, plus a bump in in C&S three-point opportunities and makes.
Running the Fist Motion offense should generate more assists than it has for the Portland Trail Blazers. Adding better catch-and-shoot shooters this summer addressed the problems creating the team’s lack of assists.