Seth Curry replaces Shabazz Napier as the Blazers’ undersized backup point guard. Are his stats similar enough to Napier’s to warrant the money-saving move?
Losing Shabazz Napier wasn’t a surprise after Portland’s offseason consisted of adding four new guards. The Brooklyn Nets again capitalized on the Blazers’ lack of cap space as Napier signed a two-year deal with the Eastern Conference team.
His replacement is Seth Curry, who Portland added on a two-year contract worth a guaranteed $2.75 million. The details of Napier’s contract aren’t public yet, but swapping him for Curry was to minimize the luxury tax bill.
For what the Blazers need out of its backup point guard, is Curry going to be an improvement?
Pick and roll
Portland’s offense works primarily through the pick-and-roll – Damian Lillard runs a PnR 47.4% of his possessions. The player with the second highest PnR frequency was Napier at 37.8% of possessions.
In 2016-2017, Seth Curry ran a pick-and-roll 33.2% of the time as the Dallas Mavericks offense didn’t do so as often. On those PnR’s, Curry scored 44.7% of his opportunities. Napier, in comparison, scored on 41.2% of his PnR chances.
Curry also outperformed Napier on PnR ball handling (barely). He turned the ball over 14.5% of the time while Napier turned it over 15.7% of the time.
Still, this percentage should be lower. Lillard and CJ McCollum give the ball away 11.3% and 9.8% of PnR scenarios, respectively.
Three-point shooting
According to Neil Olshey, Evan Turner will be doing a majority of the second unit’s ball handling. Curry will therefore become more of a catch-and-shoot guard.
In his most recent season, Curry took 47.1% of his shots from beyond the three-point line. He converted on 42.4% of these attempts. Napier shot 43.2% of his attempts from three and made 37.7% of them in 2017-2018.
Of those three-pointers, 65.2% were catch-and-shoot for Curry and 55.2% were for Napier. Despite less attempts, Napier knocked down 4.3% more of his C&S opportunities than Curry.
Curry shot better than Napier in every other three-point category, though.
Passing
Using per-36 minute stats, Seth Curry averaged 3.4 assists and 1.6 turnovers, an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.13. Under the same format, Shabazz Napier averaged 3.5 assists and 2.1 turnovers for an A/TO of 1.67.
The lack of assists but plentiful turnovers in their per-36 stats should be worrisome. However, neither will ball handle much and affect the team’s offense with their limited court vision.
First, Terry Stotts generally runs a staggered lineup of Lillard and McCollum. They are on the floor for nearly the entire 48 minutes and are the team’s primary ball handlers.
Second, with Lillard on the bench, the Blazers hope to put McCollum in better positions to score by having Evan Turner run the point. This makes Curry the second or third option to ball handle in the bench unit, giving him more opportunity to focus on scoring.
Defense
At 6’2″, Curry keeps Portland’s reserve point guard position undersized (Napier is 6’1″). Both are annoying defenders and can hold their own, though.
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Last season Napier averaged 1.1 steals in 20.7 minutes of playing time. In 2016-2017, Curry also averaged 1.1 steals but in 29.0 minutes per game.
Napier’s opponents shot 43.2% against him, only 0.2% off of Zach Collins‘ percentage. Comparatively, Curry’s opponents made 42.3% of their field goals.
More specifically, they made 35.8% of their threes on Napier and 32.0% on Curry.
Blazers fans lauded Napier for his Patrick Beverley-esque defense last year. It looks as though Seth Curry should continue that successfully annoying defense in his place.
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Comparing Curry’s 2016-2017 campaign to Napier’s 2017-2018 campaign, the two play very similarly. Both successfully knock down threes, have decent court vision and passing capabilities, and defend well despite being undersized.
Until the Nets release Napier’s contract details, it will be difficult to label Curry as an “improvement.” The Blazers players liked Napier and his energy, so replacing him with a new and similar player worth potentially the same amount won’t sit well in Rip City.